India

What:

The general elections to elect the members of the 18th Lok Sabha are scheduled from 19 April to 01 June in India. The elections will be conducted in seven phases, expected to last 44 days, and the counting of votes is scheduled for 04 June. The general election will be the largest in the world, with over 97 crore eligible voters.

Why:

The official tenure of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led 17th Lok Sabha session will expire on 16 June.

So what:

• As the dates for the polling approaches, political parties are likely to schedule political rallies and roadshows that can lead to disruptions in traffic, road closures, and localized disruptions.
• Heightened security measures like area patrolling and increased police presence are likely to be imposed during scheduled rallies and the conduction of polling to ensure adherence to guidelines given by the Election Commission of India and to avoid disruptions during the polling period. Suspension of communication services can also be expected.
• Imposition of section 144 can be expected during the election period as a pre-emptive security measure to ensure smooth maintenance of law and order. Section 144 has been already imposed in places like NTR district, Hyderabad, Lucknow, Cachar, East Khasi Hills District, and Thoubal.
• Protests regarding various issues and grievances can be anticipated by non-political and political groups. Some key issues include the farmers’ protest, the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the arrest of Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal in the excise policy case, reservation issues, and the protest in Ladakh. Escalation of protests cannot be ruled out, which can lead to localized disruptions.
• The threat of militant attacks can be expected during polling in states like Assam, Manipur, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Maharashtra. Heightened security can be expected at inter-state borders and vulnerable areas.
• Violence during elections can be expected, especially in areas that have previously witnessed violence like Guntur in Andhra Pradesh, Kannur in Kerala, West Gharo Hills and East Khasi Hills in Meghalaya, and Cooch Behar in West Bengal.

Areas vulnerable to violence during polling based on past incidents:

Outlook:

The findings from the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll suggest that a coalition led by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP party is projected to secure a significant majority, potentially capturing nearly three-fourths of the parliamentary seats in upcoming elections. Conversely, the main opposition Congress party is anticipated to have poor electoral performance. However, it is important to recognize that opinion polls in India, given its vast and diverse population of 1.42 billion people, have demonstrated a mixed track record.