Locations Affected: Syria
Rebel forces in Syria, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured the capital, Damascus, on 08 December, forcing President Bashar al-Assad to flee and marking the fall of the Baath Party’s five-decade-long regime. Turkey was one of the key backers of HTS in its efforts to counter Kurdish factions in Syria. After the fall of the Assad regime, HTS and Turkey have attacked Kurds in at least three towns. Some US officials have also warned about the possibility of Turkey preparing for a large-scale military incursion into Syrian territory controlled by the US-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Strained Relations Between Turks and Kurds
The Kurds are an ethnic group present across Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. Historically, there have been social tensions between the Kurds and Turks. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is an armed group formed to establish an independent Kurdish state but now aims for autonomy and cultural rights for Kurds in Turkey. Turkey considers the PKK a terrorist group responsible for insurgency in the country and regularly bombs positions of Kurdish groups in Iraq and Syria to counter the PKK. The conflict between the PKK and Turkey is often considered a low-intensity war. Turkey considers the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to be affiliated with the PKK and aims to decrease their influence in Syria, especially in regions bordering Turkey. After the outbreak of the civil war in Syria in 2011, Kurdish groups affiliated with the PKK migrated to northeast Syria to form the administrative and military core of the region. The Democratic Union Party (PYD) and People’s Defense United (YPG), part of the SDF, were founded by veteran PKK members.
Clashes in Northern Syria
- Multiple clashes between the SDF and Turkey-backed groups have broken out in Kobani, a city in northern Syria located close to the Syria-Turkey border.
- The possibility of a conflict between rebel factions aided by Turkey and Kurdish groups has raised concerns in the United States and Israel about the resurgence of Islamist groups in the region, including ISIS, and threatened counter-terrorism operations.
- Israel, which neighbours Syria along the Golan Heights, has renewed its offensive in the region, with airstrikes at critical military bases and troops at the demilitarised buffer zone in Golan Heights.
- ·The US has begun diplomatic efforts to avoid escalation between the rebel groups.
Outlook on the Situation
A Turkish-led attack against Kurdish factions in Syria could spark another civil war in the country, which is already reeling from the repercussions of the 13-year-long civil war that recently concluded. The uncertainty over Syria’s alliances risks escalating proxy conflicts, particularly involving Israel, Iran, and Russia. Ongoing instability and renewed violence could delay economic recovery and infrastructure rebuilding. Rising insecurity will hinder trade and further isolate Syria from global investment. Refugee repatriation is expected to be minimal, as instability discourages returns and may prolong displacement crises in neighbouring countries. Israel’s pre-emptive military operations near the Golan Heights are likely to intensify, aiming to prevent hostile forces from establishing control. Turkey stands to gain more influence and power in Syria and could consequently witness a shift in its relations with Russia, Iran, and the United States.
