Locations Affected: United States
Hurricane Milton, expected to make landfall in Tampa Bay, Florida, on 09 October, strengthened into a Category 05 hurricane (winds of 157 mph or higher) on 07 October. The storm rapidly intensified over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph. As of 07 October, the storm’s centre was approximately 630 miles southwest of Tampa, moving east at nine mph. The forecast has prompted evacuation orders across the Tampa Bay region, which is still recovering from the impact of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall on 26 September and resulted in 12 casualties. A hurricane warning is also in effect for the northern coast of the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico.
Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032137.shtml?cone#contents
Rapid Intensification of the Hurricane
Why: Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified due to record-high temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. Rising sea levels and warmer oceans, driven by climate change, have increased evaporation and heat transfer from the oceans to the atmosphere. These higher temperatures have also caused storm surges, rainfall, and winds from hurricanes to become more destructive.
Impact of the Hurricane
- The Hurricane was downgraded to Category 04 (130 – 156 mph) on 08 October but is expected to regain Category 05 strength.
- Operations are ongoing to remove debris from Hurricane Helene. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis noted that these efforts are crucial ahead of Hurricane Milton’s landfall to
- prevent debris from becoming projectiles. A state of emergency has been declared in 51 out of 67 counties in Florida.
- 15 million people are under flood watch, and 11 million are at risk of tropical tornadoes.
- Evacuation orders have been issued for areas adjacent to Tampa Bay and all mobile and manufactured homes.
- The southbound lanes of Interstate 75 experienced traffic congestion as residents evacuated toward Fort Lauderdale and Miami on 07 October. Long queues were reported at petrol stations in southern Florida, with some stations running out of fuel.
- Airports in Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Orlando, as well as schools across 20 counties, have planned to close.
- President Joe Biden has approved an emergency declaration for Florida and authorized the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to coordinate disaster relief.
Weather Forecast and Potential Disruptions
Forecasters state that Hurricane Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes to impact west-central Florida. Milton is expected to reach peak intensity by 08 October and weaken to a strong Category 03 hurricane (winds of 111–129 mph) before landfall. A storm surge of eight to 12 feet is forecast for Tampa Bay, the highest on record for the region and almost double the surge caused by Hurricane Helene. The storm is also expected to bring heavy rainfall across mainland Florida and the Keys, with some areas predicted to receive up to 15 inches of rainfall. Flooding and landslides are possible due to persistent rainfall. The storm could uproot trees and damage utility lines, impacting electricity and water supplies. Transport disruptions are likely due to blocked roads, and flight disruptions, including cancellations and delays, are expected due to adverse weather conditions. Organizations are advised to stay updated on the situation and follow advisories and evacuation orders issued by authorities. Alerts and updates on the storm can be found on the official website of the National Weather Service (https://www.weather.gov/).
