Bay of Bengal area has been witnessing cyclonic formations each year, especially in pre-monsoon (May-June) and post-monsoon (OctoberNovember) periods. The warm water and heavier than average rainfall create conditions suitable for vast Low Pressure Areas (LPA) that further develops into cyclonic storms. This year too, a well-marked LPA has been forming in the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea from early May 2023 that is forecast to intensify into Cyclone Mocha by 11 May.

In view of earlier instances, risk of heavy infrastructural damage affecting business and supply chains along the eastern coast cannot be ruled out. Further, authorities in Bangladesh and India (West Bengal, Odisha, and Andaman &Nicobar Islands) have alerted locals against venturing near coastal areas.

Current Scenario

The system is continuing to move north-northwestwards and is predicted to gradually intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by 11 May and a very severe cyclonic storm by 12 May over southeast and adjoining central Bay of Bengal. IMD predicts Cyclone Mocha to re-curve gradually, move nor thnortheastwards and weaken along the Indian coast from 13 May and cross southeast Bangladesh and north Myanmar coasts between Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar). It is likely to make landfall off Myanmar Coast at about 1200 hours (local time) on 14 May with windspeed reaching over 110 kmph.