The eastern Philippines is once again bracing for a tropical storm, as Ada (Nokaen) tracks northwestward across the Philippine Sea in the middle of January. While the system remains offshore for now, PAGASA’s bulletins point to a genuine possibility of landfall over the Visayas and Bicol Region within days, and coastal communities and businesses across a wide arc of the archipelago are already adjusting to wind and sea warnings.
Tracking Ada’s path across the Philippine Sea
As of 15 January, Ada’s centre carried a central pressure of 998 hectopascals and was moving northwestward at around 15 km/h. PAGASA expects the system to pass close to Eastern Samar and Northern Samar by 17 January and near Catanduanes by 18 January, maintaining tropical storm strength through Saturday before a further westward shift could bring landfall over Eastern Visayas or the Bicol Region. The storm is forecast to turn north-northwestward and then northeastward, weakening into a tropical depression as it moves away from the Philippine landmass by 20 January.
Coastal, wind and rainfall hazards
Rough seas of up to 3.5 metres are expected off Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte and the Polillo Islands, with moderate seas up to 2.5 metres along Batanes, the Babuyan Islands and Ilocos Norte. On land, the Northeast Monsoon combined with Ada’s periphery is expected to bring strong to gale-force gusts across Batanes, the Babuyan Islands, CALABARZON, Occidental and Oriental Mindoro, the Bicol Region, the Visayas and the Caraga Region through the weekend, with a broadly similar footprint persisting into Saturday.
Recommendations for organisations and residents
Businesses operating in the warned areas should monitor official PAGASA bulletins and avoid non-essential travel while wind signals remain active, and should prepare for possible disruption to coastal and marine operations. Residents in coastal, low-lying and flood-prone areas are advised to keep essential supplies of water, food, medicine, flashlights and backup power on hand, and to stay alert to fallen trees, damaged power infrastructure and structurally weakened buildings once conditions ease. Anyone travelling to or from the affected regions should build in extra time and avoid flooded or debris-covered roads.
Download the full report now
The MitKat Risk Flash on Tropical Storm Ada (Nokaen) includes the full PAGASA track and intensity forecast, a complete list of warned areas, and emergency contact numbers for the Philippines. Download the full risk flash now to stay ahead of the storm.
What is inside
- PAGASA tracked Tropical Storm Ada, locally named Nokaen, roughly 400 kilometres east of Surigao City on 15 January, packing sustained winds of 65 km/h and gusts to 80 km/h.
- Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 was raised over parts of Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao, warning of strong to gale-force gusts through 17 January.
- A westward shift in the forecast track could bring landfall over Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region before Ada weakens into a tropical depression by 20 January.
- Wave heights of up to 4.0 metres were forecast for Catanduanes, Northern Samar, the Siargao-Bucas Grande Islands and Surigao del Sur.
Filed under: APACRegional Risk Reviews