KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- According to the India Meteorological Department’s 29 October outlook, as summarised in a datasurfr Risk Flash dated 30 October 2026, a low pressure area over the South Andaman Sea is likely to move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands by 31 October.
- It is then likely to intensify further and move west-northwestwards towards the Andhra Pradesh coast until 2 November.
- Squally weather with winds of 40–55 kmph, gusting to 60–65 kmph, is forecast near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on 30–31 October. Isolated to scattered rain is expected on coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam from 30 October to 1 November, becoming fairly widespread to widespread on 2–3 November, with rain in Tamil Nadu through 5 November and possible rain in parts of Odisha depending on the track.
- The flash flags risks to maritime operations, ports, coastal logistics, power and telecommunications, and recommends avoiding non-essential travel to coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Tamil Nadu through 2 November.
This summary draws on the datasurfr Risk Flash and the IMD outlook it cites. The system’s eventual strength and track are uncertain, so the impacts below are anticipated risks, not confirmed outcomes.
What is the low pressure area over the South Andaman Sea?
The IMD’s Tropical Weather Outlook of 29 October indicated a low pressure area over the south Andaman Sea and its neighbourhood. The outlook expects it to move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal, near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, by 31 October. From there it may intensify further and head towards the Andhra Pradesh coast until 2 November. The Risk Flash does not forecast a cyclone, and the final track and intensity may change.
What weather is forecast for 30 October to 5 November?
On 30 October, squally weather is likely to increase, with winds of 40–50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over adjoining areas of the southeast Bay of Bengal, along and off the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. On 31 October, winds of 45–55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are expected over the same region. In Andhra Pradesh, isolated to scattered rain is forecast over coastal areas and Yanam from 30 October to 1 November, then fairly widespread to widespread rain on 2–3 November. Tamil Nadu may see isolated to scattered rain from 30 October to 5 November, and rain in parts of Odisha is possible depending on the system’s eventual trajectory.
Which states and regions could be affected?
The flash names the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the southeast Bay of Bengal first, then coastal Andhra Pradesh, and potentially coastal southern Odisha and northern Tamil Nadu. Coastal and low-lying areas near major water bodies are the most exposed to flash floods or inundation, and strong winds and heavy rain could bring down branches in vulnerable and elevated areas.
How could the system affect business operations?
The report assesses the following impacts by sector:
- Land: Localised mobility disruption from hazardous driving conditions and gusty winds in coastal Andhra Pradesh, and possibly southern Odisha and northern Tamil Nadu.
- Maritime: Delays or cancellations to freight and transport near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the southeast Bay of Bengal, with hazardous marine conditions affecting connectivity and offshore operations. Rough seas and strong winds may continue even after the system moves away from the islands.
- Aviation: Limited direct disruption, as the system is forecast to stay offshore, though a change in track could affect routes across Indian states and towards East and Southeast Asia.
- Supply chains and business continuity: Turbulent weather and rough seas can constrain coastal supply chains, interrupt construction and civil maintenance work, and hamper telecommunications through power outages.
What should businesses and travellers do?
The Risk Flash advises avoiding non-essential travel to coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Tamil Nadu through 31 October to 2 November, and maintaining contingency plans for port, aviation and coastal logistics schedules. Businesses with maritime, freight or offshore operations in the southeast Bay of Bengal and coastal Andhra Pradesh should monitor updated forecasts and keep contingency arrangements ready. Residents, visitors and staff in coastal and low-lying areas should avoid flash-flood-prone roads and keep water, food, medicines, flashlights and backup power ready. Everyone should follow the IMD and official airport and airline channels for flight cancellations and delays.
Frequently asked questions
Will the low pressure area become a cyclone?
The Risk Flash says the system is likely to become a depression and intensify further, but it does not forecast a cyclone, and the outcome depends on how the system develops.
When will Andhra Pradesh see the heaviest rain?
The flash forecasts fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on 2–3 November.
Will flights be disrupted?
The report expects limited direct disruption while the system stays offshore, but a shift in track could affect routes, so check airline updates.
What are the emergency numbers in India?
The flash lists 112 (National Emergency Hotline), 1554 (Indian Coast Guard and maritime accidents), 102/108 (ambulance and fire) and 1800-11-1363 or 1363 (24/7 tourist helpline).
Download the full report now
Datasurfr’s Risk Flash and monthly India-South Asia forecast carry the full impact assessment, recommendations and contact details. Download the full report now to brief your operations and continuity teams.
Filed under: India-South AsiaRegional Risk Reviews
