MitKat’s Risk Flash on Severe Tropical Storm Dujuan, tracks the storm’s approach to Japan’s east coast and sets out the operational and business risks organisations should plan for over the coming days.
What the Risk Flash covers
The Risk Flash opens with the Japan Meteorological Agency’s current status update on Dujuan, then lays out the day-by-day cyclone track from 18 through 22 September, the high-impact zones expected to bear the brunt of the storm, and the near-term weather forecast for eastern Japan. It closes with an impact analysis covering transport, infrastructure and coastal risk, and a set of recommendations for businesses operating in or through the affected region.
Current status and forecast track
As of 18 September, the JMA reports that Dujuan is a Severe Tropical Storm moving west-northwest at 40 km/h with a central pressure of 975 hPa, on a forecast track expected to bring impacts to Japan’s east coast between 20 and 21 September while it maintains Severe Tropical Storm status. On 18 to 19 September the storm tracks north-northwest toward the Ogasawara Islands with gusts up to 130 km/h and 6 to 8 metre ocean swells, before moving through the Izu Island chain on 20 September with sustained winds of 100 to 115 km/h and outer rainbands reaching coastal Honshu, Shizuoka, Kanagawa and Tokyo Bay. Its closest approach to mainland Japan and the Kanto region is expected on 21 September, during the Silver Week holiday, with JMA forecasting a recurve toward Fukushima and coastal Tohoku and weakening to a Low Pressure system by 22 September.
High-impact zones: Kanto, Chiba and the Izu and Ogasawara Islands
The Kanto region and Tokyo are expected to see heavy downpours and strong winds as the storm tracks near or off the eastern coast during the Silver Week holiday. Chiba Prefecture is flagged as particularly vulnerable because of prior record precipitation and already saturated ground, elevating the risk of severe flooding and landslides, while the Izu and Ogasawara Islands face high wave heights and strong gusts near exposed coastal and island areas. Eastern Japan is expected to see cloudy conditions and intermittent heavy rainfall through 18 September, intensifying across the Izu and Ogasawara areas before extending toward the Kanto coast by 21 September.
Transport and connectivity disruption
Air, maritime and rail transport operations across the affected areas are likely to face flight delays and cancellations, ferry service suspensions, port restrictions and temporary Shinkansen suspensions as the storm approaches. Coastal expressways and low-lying rail lines are especially exposed to inundation during heavy rainfall, raising the risk of connectivity interruption and delayed freight movement along the low-lying, Pacific-facing stretch of the eastern coast. Haneda, Narita and Chubu airports, along with regional airports, are named as needing particular attention given the likelihood of crosswinds, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms affecting operations.
Infrastructure risk and government precautions
Localised power outages and telecommunication network instability are likely, particularly during periods of peak rainfall and strong wind gusts. In Tokyo and Chiba, authorities may activate flood barriers, bring forward transit closures and issue voluntary evacuation advisories in high-risk landslide areas, and Chiba’s municipal agencies have already begun advanced drainage preparation given the ground’s saturated state from prior rainfall. The storm’s closest approach coincides with the Silver Week holiday period, compounding the potential disruption to travel and business activity in the Kanto region.
What businesses should do
MitKat recommends avoiding non-essential travel to Kanto and Pacific-facing areas during 20 to 22 September where possible, and maintaining flexible travel arrangements with additional transit time to absorb weather-related cancellations, delays and route closures. Businesses operating through Haneda, Narita, Chubu and regional airports should reconfirm flight status before departure and hold contingency options open. Organisations running vehicles or freight services should anticipate flooded roads, fallen trees, debris and temporary expressway closures across the Kanto region, and build this into scheduling over the affected period.
Monitoring the storm as it evolves
JMA’s own forecast notes that Dujuan’s projected path toward the Kanto region remains subject to change as the system evolves, so organisations with exposure in eastern Japan should treat the current track as indicative rather than fixed. MitKat advises checking JMA updates directly and keeping national emergency contacts on hand, including the Disaster Message Dial, police and fire and ambulance hotlines, through the period the storm is closest to the coast.
Download the full report now
The risk flash report by MitKat provides a complete cyclone-track table, high-impact zone mapping and the full impact analysis with sourcing from JMA. Download the full Risk Flash now to brief your travel and continuity teams.
Filed under: APACRegional Risk Reviews