Northland Controls’ Americas Monthly Risk Forecast for January 2026 translates the region’s geopolitical and security developments into operational guidance for corporate security, facilities and travel-risk teams. The forecast is designed to support site-level planning as much as executive briefings.
What the Forecast covers
The report sets out a month-by-month forecast across Canada, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and the US, reviews high-impact December developments from Argentina to Honduras, tracks the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars, and provides a full event calendar for scheduling and staffing decisions.
Elevated maritime and airspace security risk
The US blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers and expanding naval presence in the Caribbean are increasing the likelihood of airspace restrictions and reduced flight availability, a direct planning input for teams managing executive travel and site access across the region.
Nicaragua’s foreign troop presence
The simultaneous authorization of Russian, US, Cuban and Venezuelan military personnel from 01 January increases the likelihood of additional security checks, restricted access near military sites, and delays at ports and border crossings for operations linked to Nicaragua.
Civil-unrest preparedness in the US
The Pentagon’s contested drive to stand up National Guard riot-control units in every state, alongside Texas runoff elections between 21 and 31 January, points to a heightened need for crowd-management planning, route flexibility and non-partisan stakeholder communications around corporate sites.
Operational disruption from strikes and weather
Montreal’s ongoing transit maintenance strike is expected to cancel up to 1,100 bus departures a day at peak impact, while Chile’s wildfire season continues to threaten road access, visibility and emergency response capacity in central and coastal regions.
Election-related security planning
Honduras’ unresolved presidential election and Texas’ congressional and state senate run-offs both carry a real, if localized, risk of protest activity and disrupted access around polling sites and government facilities through January.
What security teams should do
Northland Controls recommends briefing security teams on evolving airspace and maritime restrictions tied to Venezuela, reviewing access-control and monitoring arrangements for any Nicaragua-linked facilities, and building crowd-management contingencies for Texas polling locations and civic events. Sites in Montreal and central Chile should activate transport and emergency-response contingency plans, and all teams should maintain centralized monitoring of the Honduras election and broader hemispheric security developments.
Download the full forecast now
The Northland Controls Americas Monthly risk forecast provides detailed operational guidance, state-by-state breakdown of risk and complete January event calendar, and detailed recommendations for security teams. Download the full report now to brief your security teams
Filed under: AmericasRegional Risk Reviews