What is the Middle East crisis and when did it begin in 2026?
Through 28 February 2026, the US-Israel coalition campaign designated Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion targeted strategic nuclear facilities and senior command infrastructure of Iran. Between 03 and 06 March, the conflict transitioned into a sustained war of attrition and regional containment. Following the initial period of True Promise 4, the coalition intensified “Phase II” operations, shifting focus from nuclear sites to the systematic decapitation of IRGC leadership, with reports confirming the deaths of several high-ranking commanders including the Quds Force logistics chief. In a significant escalation on 04 March, Hezbollah launched a full-scale offensive from Southern Lebanon, prompting an Israeli ground maneuver across the Blue Line and opening a decisive northern front with heavy fighting in the Galilee and Beirut’s southern suburbs. Simultaneously, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Yemen launched coordinated strikes on naval assets in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, resulting in the sinking of the IRIS Dena and damage to several merchant vessels. By 06 March, the ongoing escalation had disrupted aviation routes, trade, supply logistics and cross-border business operations across the region.
Which countries and regions are most affected?
The conflict has affected countries across the Middle East and beyond. In Iran, coalition strikes have disabled the Abadan and Isfahan refineries, destroyed the Kermanshah missile base and decentralized IRGC command structures, with a nationwide internet blackout reducing connectivity to roughly one percent of normal levels. The UAE experienced minor damage at Dubai and Abu Dhabi international airports from interception debris, with three killed and at least 68 injured nationwide. Bahrain’s Maameer oil refinery was struck on 05 March, while Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base sustained damage to a USD 1 billion radar system. Kuwait confirmed 10 deaths including civilians and military personnel, with damage to Kuwait International Airport and the US Embassy complex at Port Shuaiba. Iraq, Jordan, Cyprus and Lebanon have also experienced strikes, with Lebanon reporting 102 fatalities and 638 injuries, and approximately 84,000 people displaced. Saudi Arabia shot down three drones during the overnight period of 05–06 March.
What are the airspace closures and airline suspensions?
Airspace closures remain in effect across multiple countries as of 06 March. Iran, Iraq, Israel, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Syria have total closures, with Israel’s running until 1000 hours UTC on 09 March. Saudi Arabia has a partial closure affecting areas bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf, while UAE access is restricted through Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic zones. Oman’s airspace remains open and Muscat continues to serve as the main regional hub for relief and rerouted commercial flights. Major airlines have suspended operations: Emirates is operating a reduced schedule, Etihad resumed limited commercial flights from 06 March, Qatar Airways remains temporarily suspended, and British Airways, Lufthansa, Air France, KLM, Singapore Airlines, Qantas and Air Canada have all suspended or severely curtailed flights to affected destinations. India’s Air India and IndiGo have begun phased resumptions with limited flights to Dubai and Jeddah.
What is the impact on oil, energy and financial markets?
Brent crude surged 17.2 percent over the week to trade near USD 84.88 per barrel as of 06 March, putting oil on track for its steepest weekly gain since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The move has been driven by halted tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, refinery disruptions and outages affecting oil and LNG facilities across the region. Global risk sentiment remains weak, with the MSCI all-world stock index on track to fall 2.6 percent for the week, its biggest weekly decline since March 2025. Europe’s STOXX 600 hovered near a one-month low, down nearly five percent for the week. In India, the central bank is estimated to have deployed around USD 12 billion to stabilize the rupee after the currency came under severe pressure, while foreign outflows from Indian equities reached around USD two billion. Gold moved back above USD 5,100 per ounce as investors favored safe-haven assets.
What is the impact on shipping and maritime trade?
The Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with approximately 200 tankers and cargo ships idling in Gulf waters as of 05 March due to ongoing strike risks and uncertainty over safe passage. At least nine vessels have been attacked since the conflict began, including an explosive-laden boat striking a tanker near Iraq’s Khor al-Zubair port and another vessel experiencing an explosion and oil spill near Kuwait. A fatal drone boat strike approximately 52 nautical miles off Muscat killed one crew member and injured several others. A US submarine sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka on 04 March, marking a significant expansion of maritime hostilities into the wider Indian Ocean. Major global shipping companies have diverted vessels away from the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz routes, while widespread GPS and AIS signal interference has been detected across the Gulf and Central Arabian Sea, with more than 1,100 ships experiencing signal disruptions within a 24-hour period.
What are the business continuity risks?
The principal operational risks include complete paralysis of Gulf aviation hubs, with Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi airports in a “locked-hub” scenario where connecting flights are being purged from systems rather than delayed. Energy market volatility is extreme, with prices determined by headline risk and potential fuel rationing in some Asian markets. Corporate operations face activation of shelter-in-place and work-from-home protocols, with personnel extraction and relocation plans being implemented. Financial markets are experiencing a surge in safe-haven assets, with severe currency devaluation risk for regional oil-importers including India. Supply chains dependent on Gulf ports or Strait of Hormuz transit face 2–3 week delays, while cyber threats have escalated with major US banks moving to heightened security postures and a massive cyber-kinetic attack targeting Iran’s Central Bank and Ministry of Economic Affairs, ceasing all electronic financial transactions nationwide.
What should organisations and individuals do to prepare?
Organisations with operations, suppliers or staff movement in the Gulf, Levant or wider Middle East should activate force majeure clauses where applicable, identify critical shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf ports and establish alternate routes via overland corridors through Oman or the UAE, and map suppliers by country and port exposure. Pre-position inventory in safe-harbour warehouses outside high-risk zones, engage key vendors proactively, and establish relationships with multiple freight forwarders capable of pivoting from Gulf ports to Red Sea or Indian Ocean routes. Develop clear evacuation and relocation protocols for expatriates or staff in Iran, Iraq, UAE, Bahrain or Saudi Arabia, enable critical teams to function remotely with secure VPN access and alternative data centres, and strengthen cybersecurity systems. Individuals in affected countries should implement shelter-in-place procedures immediately, maintain a “Go-Bag” with passport, medications, power bank and hard-copy emergency contacts, ensure a 72-hour supply of water and non-perishable food, and stay away from military installations. If attempting a land exit, ensure a valid entry visa for the neighbouring country is obtained in advance.
Frequently asked questions
When did the Middle East crisis begin in 2026?
The US-Israel coalition campaign Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion began through 28 February 2026, with the conflict transitioning into sustained regional warfare between 03 and 06 March.
Which airlines have suspended flights to the Middle East?
Major carriers including Emirates, Qatar Airways, British Airways, Lufthansa, Air France, KLM, Singapore Airlines, Qantas and Air Canada have suspended or severely curtailed flights to affected destinations. India’s Air India and IndiGo have begun limited resumptions.
What are the emergency contact numbers for affected countries?
In the UAE: Police 999, Ambulance 998, Fire 997. Qatar and Oman: 999 for all services. Bahrain: 999. Kuwait: 112. India: ERSS 112, Police 100, Ambulance 108, Fire 101, Women’s Helpline 1091.
Download the full advisory now
datasurfr’s Special Advisory on the Middle East Escalation carries the complete country-by-country airspace closure maps, the full regulatory guidelines, and a detailed contacts directory. Download the full advisory now to brief your travel and continuity teams.
Filed under: EMEAThreat Intelligence Special Reports
