December 2025 combined sensitive religious anniversaries, contested state elections and a fractious parliamentary session with a wave of regional instability stretching from Dhaka to Islamabad. MitKat’s Monthly Risk Forecast for the month captured a period in which security planning, election logistics and cold-weather contingency all demanded simultaneous attention from businesses across India and South Asia.
Security ahead of two sensitive anniversaries
Authorities reinforced security ahead of BR Ambedkar’s death anniversary and the Babri Masjid demolition anniversary on 6 December, with large crowds expected at Chaitya Bhoomi in Mumbai and Parliament in Delhi, and additional police and Anti-Terrorist Squad deployment across Uttar Pradesh, particularly Ayodhya. The measures followed revelations that the driver of the car that exploded near Delhi’s Red Fort on 10 November, killing 13 people, had allegedly planned the attack to coincide with the demolition anniversary.
Local elections and a contentious parliamentary session
Local-body elections in Maharashtra on 2 December and Kerala on 9 and 11 December drove rallies, security reinforcement and expanded EVM deployment in cities including Mumbai, Pune, Thane and Kochi. India’s winter parliamentary session, running 1-19 December, was shaped by recent Bihar election results and opposition allegations of electoral fraud, while Delhi also saw major teachers’ demonstrations on 5 December over mandatory TET requirements, expected to draw up to 200,000 participants to Ramlila Maidan.
Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan on edge
Bangladesh’s Victory Day on 16 December brought large commemorations at the National Martyrs’ Memorial in Savar, even as Islamist-led rallies and demands tied to the July National Charter continued ahead of February 2026 elections. Myanmar’s military administration began the first phase of national elections on 28 December amid widespread resistance, while Pakistan marked Jinnah’s birth anniversary on 25 December and Benazir Bhutto’s death anniversary on 27 December against a backdrop of political tension following the 27th Constitutional Amendment.
Colder winter, thicker fog
October-December meteorological forecasts pointed to an early-onset La Nina bringing a colder-than-usual winter to northern and central India, raising the risk of fog-related logistics slowdowns, frost damage to crops and additional strain on urban health systems already dealing with seasonal pollution. Businesses were advised to plan for energy-demand spikes and transport delays through early 2026 as a result.
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The MitKat India-South Asia Monthly Risk Forecast provides full executive summary, country-by-country forecasts and an annotated event calendar. Download the report now for the complete analysis.
What is inside
- Heightened security was expected across India on 6 December for BR Ambedkar's death anniversary and the Babri Masjid demolition anniversary, compounded by a JeM-linked plot tied to the 10 November Red Fort blast that killed 13 people.
- Local body elections in Maharashtra on 2 December and Kerala on 9 and 11 December tested the ruling MVA-BJP and LDF coalitions respectively, alongside a contentious winter parliamentary session running 1-19 December.
- Bangladesh observed Victory Day on 16 December amid continuing Islamist-led rallies over the July National Charter, ahead of February 2026 national elections.
- Meteorological forecasts pointed to an early La Nina, bringing a colder-than-usual winter to northern and central India with associated fog-related logistics risk.
Filed under: India-South AsiaRegional Risk Reviews