KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- The datasurfr and MitKat monthly forecast expects November 2026 to be an eventful month for India and South Asia. In India, the Congress party and INDIA bloc begin a “Save the Vote – Save the Nation” campaign with a rally at Ramlila Maidan, Delhi, on 1 November (rated High), with mobilisation continuing to 25 November.
- Diwali (main day 8 November), Chhath Puja (13–16 November) and Guru Nanak Jayanti (24 November) will shape travel, retail and workforce availability, while winter air pollution is set to worsen across North India and Mumbai.
- In Bangladesh, a Jamaat-e-Islami-led 11-party alliance ends its protest marches with a Dhaka rally on 14 November (Medium), and Sri Lanka’s People Struggle Alliance plans week-long cost-of-living protests on dates still to be announced.
- The report treats the month as a staggered, cumulative pattern of consumer activity, workforce absence and local transport friction rather than a single nationwide shutdown.
This summary draws on the monthly forecast produced by datasurfr and MitKat. The political disputes below are contested, so grievances are attributed to the groups raising them and the risk ratings are the report’s own assessments of operational impact, not predictions.
What are the biggest risks in India and South Asia in November 2026?
The report points to four clusters: election-related protests in India, a crowded festival calendar, seasonal air pollution, and political and economic strain in neighbouring countries. Only one event in the November calendar is rated High (the 1 November Delhi rally), one is Medium (the 14 November Dhaka rally), and the rest, mainly festivals, are rated Low. The forecast also stresses that October was highly disruptive across the region, and several of those threads carry into November.
What is planned for the 1 November opposition rally in Delhi?
Party workers are due to gather at the Minto Road–Connaught Place junction and march to Ramlila Maidan. The rally targets alleged voter-list irregularities in the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls and seeks accountability from the Election Commission of India. Reports suggest Congress may bring over 100,000 workers from Rajasthan and elsewhere, and the Cockroach Janata Party has backed the march, though its leadership’s participation is unclear. The report expects barricading, temporary traffic restrictions and congestion on routes around Delhi Gate, Guru Nanak Chowk, Barakhamba Road and Kamla Market, and says police intervention or preventive detentions cannot be ruled out if gatherings exceed permitted limits. Congress’s wider “Vote Bachao, Desh Bachao” campaign runs to 25 November, and the electoral issue is expected to stay central ahead of 2027 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa.
How will Diwali, Chhath Puja and Guru Nanak Jayanti affect business?
Diwali runs from Dhanteras on 6 November to Bhai Dooj on 10 November, with the main day on 8 November, and is strongest in Delhi-NCR, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. It should boost retail, e-commerce and hospitality but bring reduced staffing and early closures. Chhath Puja (13–16 November, main Sandhya Arghya on 15 November) will cause sharper local disruption in Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, including crowd surges and road closures near ghats. Guru Nanak Jayanti on 24 November will mainly affect traffic and access in Punjab, Delhi and Haryana, with the largest gatherings in Delhi and Amritsar.
How severe will winter air pollution be in Delhi and Mumbai?
Delhi’s air quality entered the ‘poor’ category and GRAP-I was activated on 21 October. Falling temperatures, weak winds, stubble burning in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, and a developing El Niño pattern are cited as drivers, and Mumbai’s readings exceeded Delhi’s on some October days. The report expects further deterioration in Delhi-NCR as stubble burning and Diwali emissions coincide, with possible effects on flights, road and rail travel, construction and workforce attendance. Delhi’s Winter Action Plan starts on 1 November, and courts have ordered firework restrictions in Mumbai and regulated sales in Delhi rather than a blanket ban.
What is happening in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka?
In Bangladesh, the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance demands implementation of the July National Charter, lower fuel, gas and electricity prices, law and order and anti-corruption measures. Its Dhaka rally on 14 November could close roads around Motijheel, Paltan and Zero Point and disrupt commuting and goods movement. The finance minister has warned that energy and economic stabilisation could take two years. In Sri Lanka, the People Struggle Alliance campaign on living costs began with a Colombo protest on 3 October and is expected to bring localised congestion, heavier policing and possible public-sector disruption in Colombo, Kandy, Galle and Jaffna.
Which October events could still affect November?
Cyclone Arnab, which hit Andhra Pradesh on 28 October, left at least eight dead across Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, and a new low-pressure system could bring more rain. A stampede at a Kolkata Durga Puja pandal on 17 October caused at least 19 casualties and is expected to tighten crowd-control rules. Manipur saw renewed violence and shutdowns, and Punjab saw protests after the killing of an anti-drug activist. Beyond India, Pakistan imposed emergency measures in 12 districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on 11 October amid continuing Afghanistan–Pakistan clashes, Pakistan and China held the Karakoram-2026 exercise near the LAC, Myanmar’s conflict continued in Rakhine, Nepal suffered further floods and avalanches, and Sri Lanka had a nationwide blackout on 17 October.
What should businesses do in November?
The report’s impact assessments point to practical steps: plan for road restrictions and commute delays around protest sites in central Delhi and Dhaka; allow for reduced staffing around Diwali and Chhath; prepare for pollution-related curbs on construction, goods movement and flights in NCR; review security and access controls for sites near protest routes; and monitor flood and cyclone updates in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Firms with operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or Manipur should plan for sudden blockades, shutdowns and internet or transport restrictions.
Frequently asked questions
Which November event carries the highest risk rating?
The 1 November INDIA bloc rally at Ramlila Maidan is the only event rated High. The 14 November Jamaat-e-Islami rally in Dhaka is Medium.
When is Diwali in 2026?
The report gives 8 November as the main Diwali and Lakshmi Puja day, within a five-day festival from 6 to 10 November.
Will November bring a nationwide shutdown in India?
No. The report expects a staggered pattern of heightened consumer activity, workforce absence and localised transport friction, not a single nationwide shutdown.
When will Sri Lanka’s protests take place?
The People Struggle Alliance has announced week-long protests for November, but dates and locations were still to be announced.
Download the full report now
The full India-South Asia Monthly Risk Forecast covers the November event calendar, each country’s outlook and a detailed review of October’s high-impact developments. Download the full report now to brief your security and operations teams.
Filed under: India-South AsiaRegional Risk Reviews
