KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- The datasurfr and MitKat monthly forecast expects November 2026 to bring a mix of political, security, cyber, environmental and social risks across Asia-Pacific.
- The main scheduled events are Cambodia’s Independence Day (9 November), China’s 160th Sun Yat-sen commemoration (12 November), Malaysia’s Melaka state election (14 November), the Macau Grand Prix (19–22 November), Japan’s Labour Thanksgiving Day (23 November), Thailand’s Loy Krathong (24 November) and Taiwan’s nine-in-one local elections (28 November).
- October’s developments carry forward: AI-assisted cyber-attacks in Japan and South Korea, a series of border incidents on the Korean Peninsula, continuing PLA activity around Taiwan, typhoons in Japan, Indonesian forest fires and haze, flooding in Thailand and Vietnam, and protests in Indonesia.
- The report rates every dated event on its November calendar as Low risk, but stresses localised traffic, security and access disruption and urges proactive monitoring and flexible operational planning.
What are the main risks in Asia-Pacific in November 2026?
The report points to four themes: election and commemoration-related activity, persistent military tension in East Asia, evolving cyber threats, and environmental disruption. All dated calendar entries are rated Low, so the larger exposure comes from the carry-over of October events and from cumulative localised disruption rather than any single flashpoint.
Which elections and public events are scheduled?
Taiwan holds its nine-in-one local elections on 28 November, with about 19.65 million eligible voters, 18,244 polling stations and 11,051 local officials to be elected across 22 cities and counties. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau has warned of Chinese influence activity, including disinformation and cyber intrusions, and the report cautions that local results should not be read as a direct predictor of the 2028 presidential contest. Malaysia’s 16th Melaka state election is on 14 November, with early voting on 10 November, 271 polling stations and the three main coalitions contesting all 28 seats. China marks the 160th anniversary of Dr Sun Yat-sen’s birth on 12 November, with ceremonies in Beijing, Zhongshan, Hong Kong and Macau, and cross-strait friction after Taiwan barred officials from travelling to Beijing for the events.
Which holidays and festivals will affect operations?
Cambodia’s 73rd Independence Day on 9 November is a public holiday with cordons and traffic restrictions around Phnom Penh’s Independence Monument. Japan’s Labour Thanksgiving Day on 23 November closes government offices and banks, and a Tokyo cycling event will restrict waterfront roads and Metropolitan Expressway sections. The Macau Grand Prix (19–22 November) brings road closures, parking restrictions and congestion around the Guia Circuit. Thailand’s Loy Krathong on 24 November, which is not a public holiday, will crowd waterfronts in Bangkok and Chiang Mai, where sky lanterns also pose a risk to the airport. Seoul’s Liberal Democracy Marathon (8 November) and Australia and New Zealand’s Remembrance Day services (11 November) cause only localised, morning-focused disruption.
How serious are the cyber threats in Japan and South Korea?
On 14 October, Japan’s National Cybersecurity Office consolidated government advisories after repeated unauthorised access incidents, and JPCERT/CC confirmed attackers had used AI to scan for and exploit known vulnerabilities in APIs. The report states that no formal national state of emergency was declared. In South Korea, a campaign from late September to October used an open-source AI penetration-testing agent to target externally accessible systems such as loan-broker portals and employee apps. By 14 October, 16 institutions were affected, with about 100,000 personal records exposed, although no direct theft of funds was reported. The report expects further attacks on unpatched software and exposed APIs, stricter oversight and a higher risk of phishing and identity fraud.
What is the security picture around Korea and Taiwan?
On the Korean Peninsula, North Korean forces made dozens of unauthorised border incursions in October while fortifying barriers and laying landmines. An explosion injured three South Korean personnel, and Seoul fired warning shots and proposed military talks. The report judges full-scale conflict unlikely but expects continued low-level provocations. Around Taiwan, Taiwan’s defence ministry reported PLA aircraft and naval activity on 1–2 October, including median-line crossings, and Taiwan’s Coast Guard warned on 23 October of coordinated Chinese maritime activity.
What environmental and social disruption should businesses expect?
Fires burned more than 1.9 million hectares in Indonesia in October, intensified by El Niño, cancelling thousands of domestic flights, closing schools in Malaysia and pushing Singapore’s PSI up to 134–192 on 9 October. Conditions should ease with seasonal rain later in November, though Singapore’s NEA still forecasts moderate to unhealthy air. Four typhoons affected Japan in October, and Typhoon Champi caused over 100 flight cancellations. Flooding in Thailand affected more than 3.14 million people at its peak, and flash floods in Vietnam disrupted freight to Da Nang and other hubs. Indonesian labour and student protests may continue, and a Wellington protest against generative AI and data centres is planned for 14 November.
Frequently asked questions
Did Japan declare a state of emergency over the cyber-attacks?
The report’s overview says so, but its detailed section states that no formal national state of emergency was declared; treat the second statement as the more specific one and verify before publishing.
When is the Taiwan election?
28 November 2026, covering 22 cities and counties and 11,051 local officials.
Will haze continue in November?
The report expects conditions to ease with seasonal rainfall later in the month, but Singapore’s NEA forecasts moderate to unhealthy air.
Is Loy Krathong a public holiday in Thailand?
No. Normal business is generally expected, with localised congestion in popular areas.
Download the full report now
The full Asia-Pacific Monthly Risk Forecast includes the November event calendar, country-by-country analysis and detailed reviews of October’s high-impact developments. Download the full report now to brief your security, travel and continuity teams.
Filed under: APACRegional Risk Reviews
