KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- The datasurfr and MitKat monthly forecast describes November 2026 as a complex operating month for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, shaped by elections, diplomatic summits, technology and climate conferences, labour action, public holidays and geopolitical conflict.
- Key dates are Bulgaria’s presidential run-off on 1 November, South Africa’s local government elections on 4 November, Web Summit in Lisbon (9–12 November), the COP31 World Leaders’ Summit in Antalya (11–12 November), a Spanish nationwide labour strike on 11 November, the EU Enlargement Forum (15–16 November), the second EU-UK Summit and a planned Italian general strike on 20 November, and Spain’s snap general election on 29 November.
- October carries forward through the PHP vulnerabilities disclosed on 21 October, protests across Europe, the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak, Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis, Israel’s inconclusive election, unrest in Tunisia and South Africa, and continuing conflict in Ukraine and the Gulf.
- The report rates all dated holiday entries on its November calendar as Low risk.
This summary draws on the monthly forecast produced by datasurfr and MitKat. Many of the topics are politically contested, so positions are attributed to the governments, parties and groups concerned, and ratings are the report’s own assessments of operational impact rather than predictions.
What are the main risks in EMEA in November 2026?
The report expects localised transport, access and operational disruption linked to political events, international conferences, industrial action and public holidays, alongside ongoing exposure to the Russia-Ukraine war and Gulf maritime tensions. It advises monitoring political and security developments, maintaining transport and supply-chain contingency plans, and following official travel advisories.
Which elections are scheduled or still unresolved?
Bulgaria’s presidential run-off is on 1 November: in the first round on 25 October, the Iotova–Valchev ticket took 34.76 percent and Gyurov–Kandev 31.94 percent, with neither securing an outright win. South Africa votes in local government elections on 4 November, with the report expecting heavier policing, localised congestion and possible service-delivery protests. Spain holds a snap general election on 29 November after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s 5 October announcement, following the rejection of emergency housing measures and weeks of housing protests. Serbia’s 25 October vote gave the student-backed Student List 52.65 percent against 39.22 percent for the SNS-led coalition, with seat allocation pending. In Israel, no bloc reached 61 seats in the 27 October election, the new Knesset is expected to be sworn in around 10 November, and the report warns of an extended coalition negotiation period.
Which summits and conferences will affect travel?
Web Summit runs in Lisbon from 9 to 12 November, with more than 70,000 attendees expected from over 100 countries. COP31 takes place in Antalya from 9 to 20 November, with the World Leaders’ Summit on 11–12 November, 85 leaders confirmed and 630 extra transport vehicles planned, though hotel pressure and venue access restrictions are expected. Brussels hosts the EU Enlargement Forum on 15–16 November and the second EU-UK Summit on 20 November, where the report expects limited sector-specific agreements (agrifood, emissions trading, youth mobility, defence) rather than a wholesale revision of post-Brexit arrangements, plus possible security restrictions near EU institutions.
Where are strikes and protests expected?
In October, demonstrations spread across France, Italy, Portugal, Belgium, Spain and Albania over living costs, housing, wages, education and public services, with clashes and looting reported in France on 17 October. The report lists further French protests on 31 October and 5 November, a nationwide strike called by Spain’s UGT and CCOO unions on 11 November, and a planned Italian general strike on 20 November. In Tunisia, police clashed with protesters in Tunis and Sfax governorate on 22 October after a large 17 October protest, and in South Africa, anti-migrant unrest led to deployment of over 500 soldiers.
What cyber and health risks should businesses watch?
Two critical PHP flaws disclosed on 21 October (CVE-2026-109618 and CVE-2026-109619, dubbed PHP2Shell) could allow unauthenticated remote code execution. Precautionary shutdowns hit sites in Finland, the Netherlands and the UK, and organisations in Germany, France, Belgium and the Czech Republic were still remediating by 23 October. Firms are advised to find affected installations, patch, review logs and coordinate with suppliers. On health, the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak has affected the DRC, Uganda, Kenya, Nigeria and France, with no approved vaccine or drug. Separately, France reported the first documented human Shamonda virus case on 22 October, and the report rates the immediate business risk as low.
What is happening in Ethiopia, Ukraine and the Gulf?
Ethiopia appointed an interim caretaker administration for Tigray on 16 October, with a six-month mandate to prepare elections, after renewed fighting between federal forces and the TPLF. In Ukraine, the report records intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities, divergent sanctions policies in Europe and the US, and a limited Oleshky ceasefire due to start on 27 October. In the Gulf, 28 attacks on commercial shipping in October were the highest monthly figure on record, and Houthi missile and drone activity targeted Saudi Arabia.
Frequently asked questions
When is Spain’s general election?
29 November 2026, with a nationwide labour strike also called for 11 November.
Is Ebola spreading in November?
The report says further cases remain possible in Kenya and Nigeria, while Uganda has declared its outbreak over and France’s earlier case recovered.
Are the PHP vulnerabilities still a risk?
Yes. The report warns that unpatched systems and circulating proof-of-concept exploits keep the risk elevated.
Which holidays affect business?
All Saints’ Day (1 November), Armistice and Polish Independence Day (11 November), Oman’s National Day (25–26 November) and others on the calendar, all rated Low.
Download the full report now
The full EMEA Monthly Risk Forecast includes the November event calendar, country-by-country forecasts, October’s high-impact developments and the escalation snapshot on Ukraine and the Middle East. Download the full report now to brief your security, travel and continuity teams.
Filed under: EMEARegional Risk Reviews
