i-MiTiGATE’s Americas Monthly Risk Forecast for January 2026 brings together the region’s most consequential geopolitical, security and regulatory developments into a single monthly reference. It is built for organizations that need a fast, decision-ready view of what is changing across North, Central and South America, and what it means for operations.
What the Forecast covers
The forecast profiles the month ahead country by country, reviews the high-impact developments of December that carry into January, provides updates on the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars, and closes with a full event calendar of public holidays and scheduled disruptions across the Americas.
US-Venezuela confrontation and hemispheric security risk
Washington’s designation of the Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, a total blockade on sanctioned oil tankers, and a rising US naval presence in the Caribbean have combined to lift maritime security and sanctions-enforcement risk across the region, with foreign airlines already adjusting services in response.
Nicaragua’s multi-aligned troop authorization
The simultaneous authorization of Russian, US, Cuban and Venezuelan forces from 01 January raises political and regulatory risk for businesses operating in or linked to Nicaragua, increasing exposure to sanctions, export controls and closer scrutiny from Western governments.
A hardening US domestic security posture
The Pentagon’s 01 January deadline for states to establish National Guard quick-reaction riot-control units remains contested in the courts, while Texas heads into runoff elections between 21 and 31 January that will bring localized security and traffic management measures to the Houston and Tarrant County areas.
Regulatory and economic disruption across the region
Nicaragua’s new currency-exchange fee rule, Uruguay’s compressed banking hours, Costa Rica’s points-based driver’s-licence system, and an expanded US travel ban covering 39 countries all add compliance and operational complexity for businesses with regional footprints in January.
Persisting spillover from global conflicts
Continued Russia-Ukraine strikes on ports and energy infrastructure, alongside a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire, are sustaining volatility in energy, shipping and trade-finance markets that reach well beyond their immediate theatres and into the Americas’ supply chains.
What businesses should do
Organizations should track sanctions and compliance developments tied to Venezuela and Nicaragua, prepare contingency plans for Montreal transit disruption and Chilean wildfire season, and monitor ongoing litigation over National Guard deployments and the Honduras and Texas election calendars. Firms with exposure to global energy and shipping markets should recheck contingency plans and insurance arrangements against continuing volatility from the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts.
Download the full report now
MitKat’s Monthly Report on i-MiTiGATE Americas risk forecast carries the complete regional risk assessment with state level deatils, provides dedicated updates on ongoing global conflicts and detailed recommendations for businesses. Download the full report now to brief your risk and continuity teams.
Filed under: AmericasRegional Risk Reviews