KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- Italy hosts the 2026 Winter Olympics across Lombardy and northeast Italy from 06 to 22 February, elevating security and transport congestion around Milan, Cortina d’Ampezzo, Bormio and Livigno.
- Portugal holds a first-in-four-decades presidential runoff on 08 February between Socialist frontrunner António José Seguro and far-right Chega leader André Ventura, the same day Spain’s Aragon region holds snap regional elections after a budget collapse. Poland completes its withdrawal from the Ottawa
- Convention on 20 February and will resume anti-personnel mine production along its eastern border, while the UK makes its Electronic Travel Authorisation strictly mandatory for all remaining visa-exempt nationalities from 25 February.
- In the Gulf, the World Government Summit convenes in Abu Dhabi from 03 to 05 February.
- The month follows a volatile January in which Bulgaria adopted the euro, US-Denmark tensions escalated over Greenland, farmers’ protests spread across France, Poland, Germany and Spain, and Storm Goretti cut power to hundreds of thousands of households across Western Europe.
February 2026 is a dense month for EMEA, combining a major global sporting event, several consequential elections, a hard security-policy shift in eastern Europe, and new travel-compliance regimes in the UK and UAE. All of this sits on top of an unresolved geopolitical backdrop — the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Iran’s internal unrest, and the US-Denmark standoff over Greenland — that continued to generate spillover risk through January. Organisations with EMEA exposure should expect episodic, calendar-driven disruption layered on unresolved geopolitical volatility.
What does hosting the Winter Olympics mean for business in Italy?
Italy hosts the 2026 Winter Olympics from 06 to 22 February across venues in Lombardy, Veneto and Trentino-Alto Adige, with Milan, Cortina d’Ampezzo, Bormio and Livigno as key host locations. Road networks connecting alpine venues are likely to see congestion on competition days and weekends, rail services linking Milan to the northeast may run at higher capacity with a greater risk of delays, and airports serving the region are expected to see higher passenger volumes throughout the period. Enhanced security measures, including controlled venue access and surveillance operations, are routine for an event of this scale; disruption is expected to remain temporary and localised, normalising after the 22 February closing ceremony.
Which elections could disrupt business operations in February 2026?
Portugal holds its first presidential runoff in four decades on 08 February, pitting Socialist frontrunner António José Seguro against Chega’s André Ventura; the outcome carries direct implications for residency-by-investment programmes such as the Golden Visa, which has generated roughly EUR 9 billion in foreign investment. On the same day, Spain’s Aragon region holds snap regional elections after President Jorge Azcón failed to pass a 2026 budget, with a fragmented 14-candidate field raising the likelihood of prolonged coalition bargaining that could delay public procurement and regional subsidies. South Africa’s State of the Nation Address on 12 February in Cape Town is expected to bring the city’s usual pattern of road closures and heightened security around the CBD.
What changed for cross-border security and travel in February?
Poland’s six-month withdrawal notice from the Ottawa Convention ends on 20 February, after which the state-owned defence manufacturer Belma is expected to resume large-scale anti-personnel mine production for deployment along the Belarus and Kaliningrad borders as part of Poland’s “East Shield” initiative — a move likely to bring military presence, surveillance activity and possible access restrictions to eastern Polish border regions. Separately, the UK’s Electronic Travel Authorisation becomes strictly mandatory for all remaining visa-exempt nationalities, including the EU, US, Canada and Australia, from 25 February, enforcing a “no permission, no travel” policy at every point of departure; corporate travel teams should ensure ETA verification is built into booking workflows well before the deadline. Dubai has also introduced paid public parking in International City from 01 February as part of a wider traffic-management reform.
What major gatherings and protest risks should businesses track?
The World Government Summit convenes in Abu Dhabi from 03 to 05 February with more than 6,000 attendees and 35-plus heads of state, offering unusual direct access to policymakers across 150 countries but also driving heightened security and localised disruption. Morocco faces a nationwide three-day university strike from 03 to 05 February over a contested higher-education reform law, and Munich sees a major rent-affordability protest on 07 February amid asking rents that have climbed 4.5 percent year-on-year nationwide. Businesses should also expect residual disruption from January’s farmers’ protests across France, Poland, Germany and Spain over the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, which could resurface around EU-level negotiations.
What geopolitical risks are carrying into February?
January’s escalation over US President Trump’s stated interest in acquiring Greenland has strained relations with Denmark and several NATO allies, introduced threatened tariffs on European countries, and raised the prospect of expanded US military presence in the Arctic — a dispute expected to remain fluid through February with elevated diplomatic and trade risk. Iran’s most intense internal crisis since 1979, marked by nationwide protests, mass arrests and intermittent airspace closures, continues to disrupt aviation routing and Middle East supply chains. The Russia-Ukraine war and the fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire both remain rated “very high” escalation risks, with continued potential for airspace volatility, energy-market disruption and protest spillover across the region, including the Turkey-based demonstrations linked to the Rojava conflict.
What should businesses do to prepare?
Organisations with EMEA exposure should confirm ETA compliance for UK-bound staff well ahead of 25 February, build buffer time into travel and logistics plans around the Winter Olympics and the Abu Dhabi summit, and monitor the Portugal and Aragon election outcomes for policy signals affecting investment and procurement. Firms operating in eastern Poland or with Iran, Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Hamas exposure should keep crisis-response, aviation-routing and supply-chain contingency plans active throughout February.
Frequently asked questions
Do I need a UK ETA if I already have a visa?
No. The Electronic Travel Authorisation applies to visa-exempt nationalities travelling to the UK; from 25 February it becomes mandatory for all remaining visa-exempt travellers, including from the EU, US, Canada and Australia.
Will the Winter Olympics disrupt travel outside the host cities?
Disruption is expected to be concentrated in and around host cities and mountain venues in Lombardy and northeast Italy, with transport conditions gradually normalising after the 22 February closing ceremony.
What is driving Poland’s decision to resume landmine production?
Poland is completing its withdrawal from the 1997 Ottawa Convention as part of its “East Shield” border-defence initiative, citing heightened security concerns linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and pressure along NATO’s eastern flank.
Download the full report now
datasurfr’s EMEA Monthly Risk Forecast for February 2026 carries the complete country-by-country breakdown, an escalation snapshot covering Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, Iran and Venezuela, and a full regional event calendar. Download the full report now to brief your risk and continuity teams.
Filed under: EMEARegional Risk Reviews