What is the El Niño impact on APAC in 2026?
According to the WMO, there is an 80 percent probability of El Niño conditions emerging between June and August 2026 and a near 90 percent probability that impacts will persist through September–November 2026. Current indicators suggest the developing event could reach moderate to strong intensity. El Niño is associated with shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns, often resulting in droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, water shortages, and periods of intense rainfall across different parts of the region. Early impacts are already emerging, including delayed monsoon progression in India, elevated drought and wildfire concerns in Southeast Asia, and forecasts for warmer and drier conditions in Australia.
Which countries in APAC are most affected?
India: The southwest monsoon arrived three days late in Kerala and stalled over southern Maharashtra, driving a 41 percent rainfall deficit between 04 June and 18 June. IMD forecasts seasonal rainfall at 90 percent of the Long Period Average, with a high 60 percent probability of a deficient monsoon. Drought-prone states include Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand. South Asia: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, and Afghanistan face disrupted monsoon patterns, heat stress, and flash flood risks. Southeast Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Brunei face reduced rainfall, elevated fire risks, and transboundary haze. East Asia: Eastern China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong may face above-normal rainfall, flooding, and landslide risks. Oceania: Australia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Fiji face prolonged dry spells, elevated bushfire risks, and water shortages.
What are the key risks?
Key risks include droughts, heatwaves, forest fires, floods and flash floods, and water scarcity. In India, rainfall deficits are expected to extend into the northeast monsoon period. Reservoir levels are declining, and hydroelectric power generation may be reduced. In Southeast Asia, peatland and forest fires may cause transboundary haze, affecting air quality in Malaysia and Singapore. In East Asia, intense rainfall events may elevate flood and landslide risks. In Oceania, unseasonably warm and dry conditions have already contributed to precipitation deficits and increasing soil dryness.
What should organisations and individuals do to prepare?
Organisations should test backup power systems, ensure adequate fuel reserves, create water conservation plans, secure alternative water sources, conduct fire safety audits, maintain fire suppression equipment, and keep facility perimeters clear of combustible materials. Provide flexible working arrangements such as staggered hours, remote work, or early closures for outdoor and field staff during heatwaves. Maintain electrical equipment to prevent short circuits, inspect drainage systems, secure outdoor equipment, and review emergency response and evacuation procedures. Prepare alternative transportation routes and verify backup communication channels. Individuals should stay indoors during peak daytime temperatures, drink plenty of water, conserve water, avoid lighting open fires, prepare an emergency supply kit, keep power banks charged, clear gutters, and monitor official weather forecasts. Emergency contacts: India: 112 (ERSS), 1078 (NDMA). Australia: 132 500 (SES). Philippines: (02) 8911-1406 (NDRRMC). Singapore: 995 (SCDF). Malaysia: 999 (NADMA). Indonesia: 117 (BNPB).
Frequently asked questions
When will El Niño impact APAC in 2026?
There is an 80 percent probability of El Niño conditions emerging between June and August 2026, with a near 90 percent probability that impacts will persist through September–November 2026.
Which countries in APAC are most affected by El Niño 2026?
India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Fiji are most affected.
What are the emergency contact numbers for APAC countries?
India: 112 (ERSS), 1078 (NDMA). Australia: 132 500 (SES). Philippines: (02) 8911-1406 (NDRRMC). Singapore: 995 (SCDF). Malaysia: 999 (NADMA). Indonesia: 117 (BNPB).
Download the full advisory now
datasurfr’s Special Advisory on the Impacts of El Niño in the APAC carries the complete country-by-country risk assessment, the full mitigation measures, and a detailed contacts directory. Download the full advisory now to brief your travel and continuity teams.
Filed under: APACThreat Intelligence Special Reports
