KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- Cyclone Arnab intensified from a deep depression into a cyclonic storm over the east-central Bay of Bengal on 26 October 2026. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) says it is very likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam as a very severe cyclonic storm by the forenoon of 28 October, with sustained winds of 115–125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph and a storm surge of 1–1.5 metres near Kakinada and Yanam.
- Red alerts for extremely heavy rainfall cover Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari and Eluru on 27 October, and extend to Visakhapatnam, Anakapalle, NTR, Krishna and Guntur on 28 October, with red alerts also for Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri in Odisha.
- Andhra Pradesh has deployed 10 NDRF and 11 SDRF teams and issued evacuation orders for low-lying areas; Odisha will close schools in five districts on 28 and 29 October.
- Danger signals are up at four Andhra Pradesh ports and nine Tamil Nadu ports have cyclone warning signals.
- Businesses should expect suspended port operations, likely flight and rail disruption, power outages and disruption to remote working around 27–29 October. This is a live-event advisory and will be superseded by later IMD bulletins.
Cyclone Arnab is forecast to strengthen into a very severe cyclonic storm and cross the Andhra Pradesh coast on 28 October. This is a live-event advisory based on IMD bulletins and open-source reporting as at 26 October 2026, and later IMD bulletins will supersede it. Safety guidance below comes from the advisory and is general, so follow official instructions for your area.
Where is Cyclone Arnab and where is it headed?
A low-pressure area formed around 23 October, became a depression on 24 October and a deep depression on 25 October, then intensified into Cyclonic Storm Arnab on 26 October. At 0530 hours IST that day it lay near 15.4 degrees North and 88.9 degrees East, about 650 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 610 km southeast of Gopalpur and 910 km east of Bapatla. IMD expects it to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by midnight on 26 October and a very severe cyclonic storm on 27 October, then move northwestwards to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 28 October. Winds at landfall are forecast at 115–125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph.
Which areas are under red alert?
In Andhra Pradesh, red alerts for 27 October cover Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari and Eluru; on 28 October they extend to Visakhapatnam, ASR, Anakapalle, Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari, Eluru, NTR, Krishna and Guntur, with a storm surge of 1–1.5 metres forecast near Kakinada. Yanam, within the landfall stretch, has red alerts for both days. In Odisha, red alerts for 28 October cover Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri, with heavy to very heavy rainfall forecast for several other districts and widespread activity continuing into 29 October before easing from 30 October. In Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, a red alert predicts heavy to extremely heavy rainfall as the northeast monsoon remains active, and nine ports including Chennai, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore and Thoothukudi have cyclone warning signals. Kerala has red alerts in northern and hilly districts, and squally winds are expected along the West Bengal coast from 27 October. Red alerts also cover Khammam, Bhadradri Kothagudem and Mulugu in Telangana, with rainfall warnings for Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh from 27 to 30 October.
What are the authorities doing?
Andhra Pradesh’s Chief Minister has directed officials to stay on high alert and aim for zero casualties. Ten NDRF and 11 SDRF teams are deployed, evacuation orders cover low-lying and flood-prone areas including pregnant women, cyclone bulletins are being issued every four hours, and fishermen are urged not to go to sea. Danger signals are up at Krishnapatnam, Machilipatnam, Kakinada and Visakhapatnam ports, and APEPDCL has set up 30 round-the-clock control rooms and readied 309 contractor teams with 4,056 personnel. Odisha has assigned two Deputy Chief Ministers and six Ministers to oversee eight districts from 27 to 29 October, deployed 24 ODRAF teams and six NDRF teams across the five most vulnerable districts, cancelled officials’ leave, and will close schools, colleges and Anganwadi centres in those districts on 28 and 29 October. In Tamil Nadu, Chennai has identified 17 low-lying areas, prepared 113 boats and is running 100 medical camps daily.
What is the business impact?
The advisory rates maritime, ports and fisheries as high risk, expecting suspended berthing, cargo handling and vessel movements on 27–28 October followed by backlogs. Rail, aviation, road and logistics, power, telecoms, agriculture, manufacturing, workforce attendance and inland states are rated medium. As a precedent, it cites Cyclone Montha in October 2025, when 65 trains were cancelled in coastal Andhra Pradesh, all IndiGo and Air India Express flights at Visakhapatnam were cancelled on landfall day, 13,000 power lines and 3,000 transformers were damaged, and crops over nearly 4.4 lakh acres were hit; similar disruption is possible, though no cancellations for Arnab had been announced at the time of writing. Mobile and internet services are vulnerable to outages and tower damage in landfall districts, so remote working may be unreliable, and the storm coincides with the kharif harvest, raising the prospect of supply shortfalls and short-term price volatility in the Godavari and Krishna delta regions.
What should businesses and individuals do?
For organisations, the advisory recommends activating continuity plans by 27 October, suspending business travel to coastal Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha on 27–29 October, halting fleet movements in red-alert districts at peak impact, testing backup generators and securing 72 hours of fuel, moving time-sensitive functions to teams outside the region before 27 October, backing up data off-site, securing loose materials and photographing premises for insurance, and letting staff in landfall and red-alert districts work from home or take leave on 28 October. After the storm, sites should be inspected for structural and electrical safety before reopening, with operations resuming in phases. For individuals, it recommends charging phones and power banks, keeping documents in waterproof containers, stocking water, food, medicines and cash for at least three days, tying down loose items, avoiding flooded roads, switching off mains and gas during the cyclone, staying indoors until officials announce it has passed, and avoiding damaged buildings and fallen wires afterwards.
Frequently asked questions
When is Cyclone Arnab expected to make landfall?
IMD says it is very likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 28 October as a very severe cyclonic storm, with sustained winds of 115–125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph.
Which Odisha districts are most at risk?
Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri are identified as the most vulnerable districts, with red alerts for 28 October and schools closed there on 28 and 29 October.
What are the main emergency numbers?
National Emergency Response Support System: 112. Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority: 112 or 1070. APEPDCL power helpline: 1912. NDMA helpline: 011-1078. Indian Railways enquiries: 139.
Stay updated
This is a live-event advisory based on IMD bulletins and open-source reporting as at 26 October 2026, and impact figures will continue to be revised. Monitor IMD’s Cyclone Warning Division, state disaster management authorities and port and railway notices directly, and refer to datasurfr’s Special Advisory service for consolidated, business-focused updates.
Filed under: India-South AsiaThreat Intelligence Special Reports
