What are the Bay of Bengal Low Pressure Systems 2026?
The Bay of Bengal Low Pressure Systems 2026 refer to two weather systems forecast by the India Meteorological Department in October 2026. The first is an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Tamil Nadu coast, extending up to 5.8 kilometres above mean sea level, which is most likely to result in the formation of a low-pressure area over the same region by the afternoon of 21 October. The second is an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Thailand and adjoining areas of Thailand and Myanmar, expected to emerge over the north Andaman Sea by the morning of 21 October. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal around 23 October. The system is subsequently expected to move northwestwards and intensify further.
When and where are the low-pressure areas forming?
The first low-pressure area is expected over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Tamil Nadu coast by the afternoon of 21 October 2026. The second low-pressure area is expected over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal around 23 October 2026. The systems are forecast to bring widespread rainfall across Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on 21–22 October, with isolated scattered rainfall likely during 23–26 October. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is forecast over Kerala and Mahe from 21–26 October and over Coastal and South Interior Karnataka from 22–24 October. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema from 21–26 October. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are also expected to experience widespread rainfall over the coming days.
What is the cyclogenesis probability?
According to the IMD, the probability of cyclogenesis — the formation of a depression — over the Bay of Bengal is forecast to remain NIL through the first 120 hours. It increases to LOW during the 120–144-hour window and rises to MODERATE during the 144–168-hour window. This indicates that while immediate development into a depression is unlikely, conditions may become more favourable for intensification later in the forecast period. Businesses and residents in coastal areas should monitor updates as the systems progress.
Which regions will experience rainfall?
Rainfall is forecast across several regions. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal are expected to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall on 21–22 October, with isolated scattered rainfall during 23–26 October. Kerala and Mahe are forecast to experience fairly widespread to widespread rainfall from 21–26 October. Coastal and South Interior Karnataka are likely to see similar conditions from 22–24 October. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema are expected to receive isolated to scattered rainfall from 21–26 October. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are also expected to experience widespread rainfall over the coming days. These conditions may lead to localized flooding, waterlogging and hazardous driving conditions in low-lying and vulnerable areas.
What are the impacts on land and maritime operations?
On land, the Bay of Bengal Low Pressure Systems 2026 are expected to cause localized disruptions to vehicular mobility, freight, logistics and commuter movement due to hazardous driving conditions and natural hazards in low-lying and vulnerable areas. Heavy to very heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds may affect road and rail transport, particularly in coastal Tamil Nadu and other affected regions. On maritime operations, transport and freight operations near Tamil Nadu coastal areas, especially in the Southern and Central Eastern Bay of Bengal, may face disruptions such as delays or cancellations due to deteriorating sea conditions. Port operations, shipping schedules and offshore activities may also be affected. Businesses with maritime, freight and offshore operations across the southwest and east-central Bay of Bengal region are advised to monitor updated forecasts and maintain contingency arrangements for potential weather-related disruptions.
What should organisations and individuals do to prepare?
Organisations should monitor the Bay of Bengal Low Pressure Systems 2026 closely and maintain contingency plans for port, aviation and coastal logistics schedules to mitigate risks from both low-pressure areas. Businesses with maritime, freight and offshore operations across the southwest and east-central Bay of Bengal region are advised to monitor updated forecasts and maintain contingency arrangements for potential weather-related disruptions. Avoid non-essential travel to affected areas such as parts of coastal Tamil Nadu through 21–26 October. Avoid flooded, debris-covered or landslide-prone roads. Residents, visitors and staff in coastal, low-lying or flood-prone areas should keep essential supplies such as water, food, medicines, flashlights and backup power ready. Monitor IMD for weather developments and official channels of airports and airlines to remain abreast of any flight cancellations and delays. For further details, contact Aatreya Bhat (Intel Manager – Datasurf) at aatreya.bhat@mitkatadvisory.com. For business queries, contact Saishh Nagesh Kadam (Sr. Business Development Manager) at saishh.kadam@mitkatadvisory.com.
Frequently asked questions
When will the first low-pressure area form?
The first low-pressure area is expected over the southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Tamil Nadu coast by the afternoon of 21 October 2026.
When will the second low-pressure area form?
The second low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal around 23 October 2026.
What is the probability of cyclogenesis?
The probability remains NIL through the first 120 hours, rises to LOW during the 120–144-hour window, and increases to MODERATE during the 144–168-hour window.
Which regions will experience rainfall?
Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
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MitKat’s Risk Flash on the Low Pressure Systems in the Bay of Bengal carries the complete weather forecast, impact assessment and recommendations. Download the full advisory now to brief your travel and continuity teams.
Filed under: APACIndia-South AsiaRegional Risk Reviews
