Powered by MitKat Advisory’s datasurfr platform, the Americas Monthly Risk Forecast for January 2026 brings together curated event monitoring and expert analysis into a single monthly briefing. It is designed to give risk, security and continuity teams an early, structured view of the month ahead.
What the Forecast covers
The forecast opens with a month-by-month outlook for Canada, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and the US, reviews December’s high-impact developments across Argentina, Chile, Honduras, Nicaragua, Uruguay and the US, tracks the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars, and closes with a full event calendar for the Americas.
US-Venezuela confrontation and hemispheric security risk
A total blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, rising US naval presence in the Caribbean and sustained diplomatic friction with Caracas are keeping maritime, aviation and sanctions-enforcement risk elevated across the wider region.
Nicaragua’s multi-aligned troop authorization
Nicaragua’s decision to authorize the simultaneous presence of Russian, US, Cuban and Venezuelan military personnel from 01 January increases political and regulatory risk for businesses operating in or linked to the country, with sectors such as logistics, energy and telecommunications facing greater scrutiny.
A hardening US domestic security posture
The Pentagon’s contested 01 January deadline for state National Guard riot-control units, together with Texas runoff elections between 21 and 31 January, points to continued civil-unrest preparedness and localized security planning needs through the month.
Regulatory change across the region
Nicaragua’s new currency-exchange fee rule, Uruguay’s compressed banking hours, Costa Rica’s points-based driver’s-licence system and an expanded US travel ban covering 39 countries are together adding compliance complexity for firms operating across multiple Americas markets.
Persisting spillover from global conflicts
Continued Russia-Ukraine strikes on ports, energy nodes and shadow-fleet vessels, alongside a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire, are sustaining volatility in energy, shipping and trade-finance markets with knock-on effects for businesses across the Americas.
What businesses should do
MitKat recommends close monitoring of sanctions and compliance developments tied to Venezuela and Nicaragua, contingency planning for Montreal transit disruption and Chilean wildfire season, and tracking of the Honduras election and Texas runoffs for localized disruption risk. Firms with global energy and shipping exposure should recheck contingency plans and insurance arrangements against continuing volatility from the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts, supported by datasurfr’s ongoing curated event monitoring.
Download the full forecast now
MitKat’s Monthly Report on Americas risk forecast carries the complete regional risk assessment, governments regulatory changes across the region due to risks, and detailed recommendations for individuals and organisations. Download the full report now to stay updated
Filed under: AmericasRegional Risk Reviews