Locations Affected: Bangladesh, India
What:
Sheikh Hasina resigned as Bangladesh’s Prime Minister on 05 August and fled the country, amid escalating anti-government protests over a government job quota system. The army announced it has taken control and is establishing an interim government. Hundreds of people have died over several weeks of protests, and the internet was cut off. On 06 August, President Mohammed Shahabuddin dissolved parliament and released former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia from house arrest.
Why:
The protests began in June 2024, demanding the abolition of job quotas that allocated 30 percent of government jobs to children of veterans who fought in Bangladesh’s war of independence against Pakistan in 1971. Some students argued that these quotas unfairly benefited loyalists of Hasina’s Awami League Party, sparking protests that escalated into full-blown anti-government unrest. Despite a Supreme Court ruling against reintroducing quotas, the unrest continued, fuelled by accusations of autocratic practices and high youth unemployment.
So What:
Bilateral Relations and Political Shifts: The fall of Sheikh Hasina has introduced uncertainties for India, impacting bilateral relations. It marks a shift in the locus of power and a potential turnaround in Bangladeshi politics after fifteen years of tense but stable rule by the Awami League. India-Bangladesh relations were at their best under Hasina’s moderate Islamic rule, but with her departure, parties with anti-India sentiments may take hold of power.
Influence of Anti-India and External Forces: The influence of Pakistan-oriented parties like Jamaat-e-Islami in the upcoming administration would mean the return of Pakistan’s presence in Bangladeshi politics, which Hasina strongly kept out. There are also concerns that China may exploit Bangladesh’s instability to increase its influence, posing a concern to India’s strategic interests.
Security Concerns: The security of India’s northeastern states, where insurgent groups used to be active, can come into question. Under Hasina’s leadership, the porous border remained relatively calm as she prevented Bangladesh from being used by these groups. The influx of refugees escaping violence can become a problem for India, prompting the Border Security Force (BSF) to issue a high alert.
Logistics and Trade Disruptions: Transit and trans-shipment arrangements with Bangladesh may be revised by the incoming regime in Dhaka. India relies on these arrangements for logistics supply to its Northeast. Trade between India and Bangladesh will be significantly impacted, with business activities at Petrapole, the largest land port in India and South Asia, nearly coming to a halt.
Economic Impact: The Confederation of Indian Textile Industry has cautioned that the situation in Bangladesh could disrupt the supply chain and affect Indian textile companies operating there. Potential production delays and market shortages are anticipated, pushing businesses to explore alternative manufacturing hubs. The crisis may also impact global brands sourcing from Bangladesh. Meanwhile, Indian consumer goods companies have paused their operations in Bangladesh.
Strategic Encirclement: India now finds itself strategically surrounded by unfriendly or indifferent neighbours: China and Pakistan to the west and north, a communist-led government in Nepal, Taliban-controlled Afghanistan to the far west, an anti-India Maldives in the Indian Ocean, and a potentially ambivalent regime in Bangladesh. This situation poses significant challenges to India’s strategic and security interests.
Outlook:
Sheikh Hasina has taken temporary refuge in India. Her presence might strain relations with the incoming administration, potentially including anti-India figures like Khaleda Zia and parties aligned with Pakistan. The unrest could threaten India-Bangladesh economic ties, including trade and infrastructure projects, necessitating diplomatic efforts to stabilize the relationship. The future of India-Bangladesh relations will hinge on the emerging power structure and the role the army plays in Bangladesh’s democratic policy.
