An attack launched by the rebel group National Liberation Army (ELN) in Colombia’s northeastern Catatumbo region on 16 January against a rival group has resulted in over 80 deaths and thousands fleeing the area. Community leader Carmelo Guerrero and seven individuals seeking to sign a peace deal were also victims of the escalating violence. Additionally, clashes between the ELN and the Gulf Clan, Colombia’s largest drug cartel, have caused at least nine casualties in northern Colombia.
The situation prompted President Gustavo Petro to end peace negotiations with the ELN on 17 January, which had been ongoing since 2022, and to declare a state of emergency on 20 January.
Reason for the Escalating Violence
Colombia has experienced decades of internal conflict involving rebel groups and the government. The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), an armed guerrilla group, disbanded in 2016 following a peace agreement. However, violence involving other rebel groups, including FARC holdouts and drug cartels, persists in some regions due to disputes over resources and trafficking routes.
Catatumbo is a major producer of the coca plant, the base product of cocaine. The area is controlled by the ELN and former FARC members. Violence intensified after the ELN accused ex-FARC rebels of violence against civilians in the region, threatening armed confrontation if it continued.
Measures Taken by the Government
- The state of emergency allows the executive branch to approve certain legislation without Congressional approval for three months and grants local authorities the power to restrict movement. It cannot be used to suspend Congress or eliminate civil rights.
- The order will take effect once signed by the President and his Cabinet, though it may be invalidated by the constitutional court.
- Over 5,000 soldiers have been deployed to Catatumbo to bolster security. A humanitarian corridor has been established between Tibu and Cucuta for the safe passage of displaced individuals.
- The government has demanded the ELN cease all attacks and permit authorities to deliver humanitarian aid in the region.
Outlook on the Situation
The increasing clashes between rebel groups significantly hinder the peace negotiations prioritized by President Petro. Ongoing violence is expected to exacerbate humanitarian conditions in the region and necessitate heightened security measures. The unrest may also provoke violence in other parts of Colombia. Additionally, some Colombians fleeing to Venezuela could create immigration challenges, further straining relations between the two nations. Tensions may rise, given Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s support for the ELN and Petro’s recent criticisms of Maduro.
