Affected Locations: Yemen
Over the past few years, the Houthis, an armed group based in northern Yemen, have evolved from a localized insurgency into a significant regional actor. Their military capabilities have expanded, incorporating advanced drone warfare and precision-guided missile strikes. The group’s recent actions, particularly in the Red Sea, have disrupted international shipping and heightened tensions in the region.
Reason for Increasing Influence
The Houthis’ military advancements and strategic alliances have bolstered their position. Their operations in the Red Sea, initially framed as targeting Israeli-linked vessels amid the Israel-Gaza conflict, escalated to broader disruptions in maritime trade. The group has consolidated control in northern Yemen, leveraging support from local tribes and external backers, including Iran.
Impact of Regional Stability and Supply Chains
- The Houthis’ attacks on commercial vessels have forced global shipping companies to reroute, leading to increased costs and supply chain delays. The situation remains fluid despite reports of scaled-down attacks.
- The Houthis’ ability to deploy advanced weapons systems and their strategic positioning near key maritime chokepoints increase the threat to regional stability. The risk of escalation remains, particularly if retaliatory measures by international forces continue.
- Houthis’ pro-Palestinian stance has propelled recruits, increasing their forces from an estimated 220,000 in 2022 to around 350,000 by late 2024. Their growing influence could complicate efforts to stabilize Yemen and impact broader diplomatic negotiations in the Gulf.
- The US and UK have conducted airstrikes on Houthi targets following Red Sea disruptions. In January 2024, the US designated the Houthis as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) entity. In January 2025, US President Donald Trump moved to redesignate Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) that will increase sanctions on the group and push regional allies to cooperate in eliminating the threat.
Outlook on the Situation
The Houthis’ expanded operational scope presents ongoing risks to maritime security and regional stability. If they extend influence into strategic cities like Marib and Taiz, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen could deteriorate further. While direct Western military engagement remains unlikely beyond targeted strikes, economic and diplomatic pressure will likely persist. Regional actors such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE may adjust their security strategies in response to the evolving threat landscape.
