Locations Affected: Germany
Germany is undergoing a political transition following the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) coalition’s victory in the national elections on 23 February. The incoming German government under Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz has signalled a departure from the previous administration’s inward-focused policies by advocating for a stronger European Union (EU) security framework, reduced dependence on the United States (US) and increased military capabilities. His proposed strategy includes forming a European nuclear deterrent with France and the United Kingdom (UK) while maintaining Germany’s military support for Ukraine.
Merz’s Plans and Potential Challenges
- The shifting transatlantic relationship, marked by US President Donald Trump’s scepticism toward the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), increases urgency for EU defence self-reliance. However, a push for European strategic autonomy may face resistance from EU members wary of provoking US disengagement.
- Germany’s defence capability remains weaker than nuclear powers like France and the UK, making the feasibility of a European nuclear umbrella uncertain. Increased defence spending would require significant budgetary allocations amid a contracting economy.
- Continued military support for Ukraine risks escalating tensions with Russia, raising potential cyber, economic, and hybrid threats to Germany. Domestically, opposition from parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfD) could challenge Merz’s foreign policy direction.
- Germany’s economic slowdown, particularly due to challenges in its industrial and auto sectors, limits its ability to finance large-scale defence initiatives. At the same time, rising competition from China further complicates Germany’s economic and diplomatic positioning.
Outlook on the Situation
While Merz’s leadership could bring a more decisive approach to Germany’s global role, the success of his international re-engagement strategy depends on internal political consensus and external diplomatic buy-in. Any shift away from US security guarantees would require strong coordination with EU allies, which may not be immediately forthcoming. Economic constraints will also limit the pace and scope of Germany’s defence ambitions. In the near term, Merz will likely focus on stabilizing Germany’s economy before making substantial progress on security independence. However, tensions with Russia and China, along with uncertain US-EU relations, will continue to test Germany’s strategic recalibration.
