Locations Affected: Turkey
Nationwide protests erupted in Turkey following the detention of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, widely regarded as President Tayyip Erdoğan’s strongest political rival. İmamoğlu was accused of corruption and aiding a terrorist group. His arrest came a day after Istanbul University annulled his degree over alleged irregularities, which could prevent him from running for president, as Turkey’s constitution requires presidential candidates to have completed higher education. Police also detained 100 individuals, including politicians, journalists, and businessmen, as part of the investigation.
Background on the Situation
Erdoğan has been in power for 22 years, currently serving his second term as president after previously holding the office of prime minister. He would be eligible to run for another term if a constitutional amendment is passed or if an early election is called. İmamoğlu was expected to be officially announced as the Republican People’s Party (CHP) presidential candidate on 23 March. Some opinion polls suggested he was leading Erdoğan ahead of the 2028 presidential elections. In 2024, İmamoğlu won a second term as Istanbul’s mayor, while the CHP secured victories in both Ankara and Istanbul. His arrest has intensified concerns over Turkey’s democratic trajectory, with some opposition leaders calling for a boycott of upcoming elections. However, Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) have denied any involvement in the arrest.
Clashes and Restrictions Imposed
- Thousands of anti-government demonstrators have gathered on university campuses and streets across the country, including in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, and Trabzon. Opposition leaders joined protesters in Sarachane district, Istanbul, on 19 March and at City Hall on 20 March.
- Clashes between protesters and police were reported outside Istanbul University and Middle East Technical University in Ankara on 20 March.
- A demonstration led by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader is scheduled in front of Bahçeşehir Municipality Hall on 21 March.
- CHP scheduled demonstrations at 14 metropolitan municipalities and 21 district municipalities under its control on 21 March.
- Authorities have imposed a four-day restriction until 22 March, including bans on public gatherings and road closures. Some metro services have also been canceled.
- Social media platforms have been restricted, and authorities have arrested individuals over social media posts deemed provocative.
Outlook on the Situation
The charges against İmamoğlu add to existing probes and indictments against him, potentially jeopardizing his presidential candidacy. However, the CHP has reaffirmed its commitment to nominating him, regardless of his detention. Protests are expected to continue, with a heightened risk of violence and further clashes. Authorities are likely to impose additional movement and traffic restrictions, leading to significant travel disruptions. Travelers are advised to avoid protest areas and plan routes in advance. Rising tensions have also contributed to market instability and weakened investor confidence, effects that are likely to persist. Additionally, İmamoğlu’s detention on charges of aiding the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) could impact ongoing efforts toward a ceasefire, following recent calls for disarmament by the PKK’s leadership.
