Locations Affected: Bangladesh
Discussions surrounding a proposed humanitarian corridor through Bangladesh into Myanmar’s Rakhine State have highlighted tensions between Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Mohammad Yunus, and the military leadership under Army Chief General Waqar-uz-Zaman. The corridor, aimed at facilitating United Nations (UN)-led humanitarian assistance to conflict-affected and earthquake-stricken areas of Rakhine, was a key topic during UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ visit to Dhaka in March.
The interim government expressed preliminary support for the initiative, which envisions a secure, internationally monitored route to deliver aid, evacuate civilians, and potentially support the voluntary repatriation of Rohingya refugees currently in Bangladesh. While the proposal aligns with Bangladesh’s humanitarian commitments, it introduces complex national security and regional considerations.
Concerns of the Bangladesh Military
General Zaman has expressed reservations, citing concerns over national sovereignty, regional stability, and the lack of military consultation. The proposed corridor would pass through areas under the control of Myanmar’s military and various ethnic armed groups, raising risks related to cross-border security, including arms and narcotics trafficking. Several political stakeholders, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), have also raised objections.
Implications of the Corridor for Various Countries
- Bangladesh: Following opposition from the military, the interim government has reportedly withdrawn support for the proposal. The disagreement highlights broader civil-military tensions, including ongoing disputes over the timing of national elections, which the military insists must occur by December.
- China: Rakhine State is central to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), notably through projects like the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port and energy pipelines that offer strategic access to the Indian Ocean. Beijing may view increased Western humanitarian presence as a challenge to its regional influence and could respond by deepening support for Myanmar’s military authorities.
- United States: Washington may see the corridor as an opportunity to enhance humanitarian access in Myanmar and to support democratic actors, while also countering China’s influence in the Bay of Bengal and beyond.
- India: The evolving situation holds strategic importance for India, which shares borders with both Bangladesh and Myanmar. Developments related to the corridor could impact India’s regional calculus, particularly in the context of its security interests in the northeastern region and its approach to balancing China’s presence in the area.
Outlook on the Situation
The proposed Rakhine corridor has become a flashpoint in Bangladesh’s internal political landscape, reflecting deeper civil-military frictions. Future efforts to revisit the proposal could heighten these tensions. At the regional level, the initiative intersects with the interests of multiple external actors, potentially influencing broader geopolitical dynamics. Amid ongoing challenges related to Rohingya repatriation and resource constraints, Bangladesh may continue to evaluate alternative approaches to address the humanitarian and security implications of the situation in Rakhine.
