Locations Affected: Poland
On 13 March, Polish President Andrzej Duda called on the United States to transfer nuclear weapons to Poland to deter aggression from Russia. During the Cold War, Soviet nuclear warheads were hosted in Poland, but the country currently has no nuclear capabilities. Duda previously presented the nuclear-sharing proposal to former US President Joe Biden in 2022, but discussions were unsuccessful.
Reason for the Proposal
President Duda’s remarks come amid peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the United States, and growing uncertainty among European leaders regarding US foreign policy under President Donald Trump. The increasing security threat posed by Russia and concerns over the reliability of the US as a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally have led to renewed debates about nuclear weapons in Poland and other European countries.
Potential Impact
- A move to stock nuclear weapons in Poland could be perceived by Russia as a serious threat, further escalating tensions between the two countries. Duda states that the proposal is in response to Russia’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in 2023.
- Duda has also expressed support for French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion to extend France’s nuclear deterrence to cover European allies.
Outlook on the Situation
The transfer of nuclear weapons to Poland would be a significant strategic move, potentially prompting the US to strengthen its defence capabilities in the region. However, it remains uncertain whether the US would agree to the proposal, given its previous refusals. This also highlights Duda’s efforts to bolster Poland-US relations, contrasting with the ruling liberal coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, which has prioritized closer ties with the European Union. Domestic divisions over Poland’s relationship with the US are likely to influence the upcoming presidential elections on 18 May, potentially shaping the country’s foreign policy trajectory.
