Locations Affected: Turkey
On 27 February, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan, called for the group to dissolve and integrate into the Turkish state. The announcement increased expectations of an end to the decades-long conflict, which has caused more than 40,000 casualties. The call comes amid the possibility of Turkey’s ruling coalition granting Öcalan, who has been imprisoned on an island off Istanbul since 1999, parole if the PKK disbands.
The Conflict Between Turkey and the PKK
The Kurdistan Workers’ Party is an armed group initially formed to establish an independent Kurdish state but later shifted its goals toward achieving autonomy and cultural rights for Kurds in Turkey. The group is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey, the European Union, and the United States. Turkey blames the PKK for insurgency in the country and has carried out multiple military campaigns against Kurdish groups. Conversely, the PKK has been responsible for various attacks in Turkey, primarily targeting military and security forces.
Regional Impact of the Announcement
- Pro-Kurdish Turkish legislators publicly read the announcement, indicating an effort to present the PKK as an obsolete group. The PKK Executive Committee declared a ceasefire on 01 March, suggesting alignment with Öcalan’s declaration.
- A perceived victory over the PKK could improve Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s standing among nationalists. Erdoğan is seeking a constitutional amendment to allow him to serve two more terms and requires the support of opposition parties to pass it. He may also use recent developments to offer Kurds some cultural rights in exchange for their support.
- The dissolution of the PKK could have broader regional implications, particularly concerning Turkey’s relationship with Syria. Turkey has been at odds with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which it considers PKK affiliates. The peace process could reduce Turkey’s military incursions against Kurdish groups in Syria.
- Turkey-United States relations have also been strained due to U.S. support for the YPG, which Washington considers an important ally against the Islamic State. The recent developments could lead to improved cooperation between Turkey, the U.S., and NATO on regional security concerns.
- The dissolution of the PKK could also force other regional powers, including Iraq, Israel, and Iran, which have leveraged Kurdish groups for various strategic interests, to reconsider their approaches.
Long-term Impact and Obstacles
Öcalan’s declaration regarding the PKK has the potential to reshape regional dynamics and redefine Turkey’s relationship with its Kurdish population. A successful peace agreement between Turkey and the Kurds could significantly impact domestic politics and regional alliances. The Kurdish leadership appears aligned with Öcalan’s announcement, and the eventual dissolution of the PKK could increase the Turkish government’s willingness to engage in peace talks. However, the peace process remains uncertain, as past attempts have mostly failed, and opposition from smaller Kurdish factions may arise. A long-term peace process would require the political and social integration of the Kurdish population in Turkey, which presents major legal and constitutional challenges. These efforts could face resistance from nationalist factions in Turkey, potentially leading to instability.
