Locations Affected: Israel, Palestine
On 15 January, a ceasefire and hostage release deal was agreed upon between Israel and Hamas following negotiations brokered by mediators Qatar and the United States. The agreement is set to come into effect on 19 January, pending approval by the Israeli cabinet. US President Joe Biden attributed the successful negotiations to increased pressure on Hamas due to changed regional dynamics, including the ceasefire in Lebanon, the weakening of Iran, and the insistence by US President-elect Donald Trump on securing the release of hostages before his inauguration on 20 January.
Tensions Between Israel and Hamas
Tensions between Israel and Hamas, an armed Palestinian group, escalated after an attack by Hamas-led gunmen in southern Israel on 07 October 2023. This attack resulted in 1,200 casualties and the capture of 251 people as hostages. In response, Israel launched a military campaign against the group, which transformed into a 15-month war, leading to widespread destruction throughout the Gaza Strip, mass displacement, shortages of essential goods, and estimated casualties exceeding 46,700 people.
Details of the Agreement
- The deal includes the release of 94 remaining hostages by Hamas, though Israel believes only 60 are alive. In exchange, Israel is expected to release approximately 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.
- The ceasefire will unfold in three phases:
- In the first six weeks, there will be a halt to fighting, the release of 33 hostages, hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, increased humanitarian assistance, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from densely populated areas of Gaza, allowing displaced Gazans to return home.
- In the second phase, the remaining hostages will be returned, and Israeli forces will completely withdraw from Gaza.
- In the third phase, any remains of hostages in Gaza will be returned, and the reconstruction of Gaza’s infrastructure will commence.
- The Israeli cabinet was scheduled to meet on 16 January to approve the deal, but the session was postponed after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office accused Hamas of seeking last-minute concessions contrary to the negotiated terms. The cabinet is expected to approve the agreement during a cabinet meeting on 17 January.
Outlook on the Situation
Outlook: A successful ceasefire could significantly reduce regional tensions. However, it is uncertain whether the ceasefire will lead to a complete end to hostilities between Israel and Hamas. Israel has continued airstrikes across the Gaza Strip even after the agreement was negotiated, and further strikes are likely. Historically, both sides have escalated military operations just before the start of a ceasefire to project strength.
The ceasefire deal is fragile, as previous ceasefires have often broken down due to clashes. For stability, all phases of the agreement must proceed without incident to prevent further escalation. Israel may not fully withdraw its forces from Gaza as it seeks to eliminate the remaining military and political capabilities of Hamas, which could complicate the deal’s second phase. Mediators Qatar, the United States, and Egypt are expected to ensure that both parties uphold their commitments. Moreover, the rebuilding of Gaza is expected to take decades due to the extensive destruction of essential infrastructure.
