Locations Affected: Pakistan, Afghanistan
What: Tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have risen after multiple border clashes over the past week. The violence was triggered by Pakistan’s airstrikes on suspected Pakistani Taliban hideouts in the Barmal district of Afghanistan on 24 December, resulting in the destruction of training camps and at least 46 casualties. According to Pakistani security officials, the airstrikes were a response to a failed infiltration attempt by militants from Afghanistan. On 28 December, Afghan Taliban forces launched attacks on Pakistani border posts in several areas, including Ghozgarhi, Matha Sangar, Kot Rangha, and Tari Mengal, which resulted in the death of at least one Pakistani paramilitary soldier. Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defense stated that the attacks targeted several points beyond the hypothetical Durand Line, which they claim is used to organize attacks on Afghan soil. Sporadic clashes and cross-border firing were reported overnight along the frontier between Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Khost.
Reason for the Increased Tensions
Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have been strained, with Pakistan accusing the Afghan Taliban of harboring militants belonging to the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and conducting various attacks against alleged TTP bases in Afghanistan. The TTP has increased attacks in various regions of Pakistan, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, since the termination of a ceasefire with Pakistan in 2022. Afghanistan has denied harboring militants and accused Pakistan of targeting civilians in its counterterrorism operations.
The Durand Line is the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, created by British colonial authorities, but it has never been recognized by Afghanistan. Tensions regarding the border have increased since Pakistan began fencing it in 2017, a move opposed by both the US-backed Afghan government and the Taliban.
Impact of the Situation
The escalating cross-border conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan threatens to further deteriorate their bilateral relations and increase violence in the regions surrounding the border. Afghanistan’s refusal to acknowledge the Durand Line as the border could signal the potential for continued instability and border-related tensions. Demonstrations by civil groups against the airstrikes may be expected in Pakistan, including in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Organizations are advised to remain updated on the situation and prepare necessary contingency plans.
