Operational Context
Coastal areas of West Sumatra face recurrent tidal flooding during monsoon periods, particularly when high astronomical tides coincide with strong onshore winds and elevated wave heights. Past hydrometeorological events between 2023–2025 have repeatedly affected Padang, Pariaman and surrounding coastal districts, causing road closures, port slowdowns and temporary displacement of residents. Drainage constraints and low-lying estuaries increase the likelihood of secondary urban flooding even when rainfall is moderate. The current advisory aligns with BMKG’s established seasonal risk profile for December, during which two to four metre waves and localized overtopping are common. Businesses operating in fisheries, coastal tourism, warehousing and last-mile delivery are historically sensitive to such events due to exposure of physical assets and reliance on port or shoreline transport routes.
Executive Summary
- Event Date: 03–07 December
- Location: West Sumatra, Indonesia
- Risk Category: Environment
- Severity Level: 3 / 5
- Confidence Score: 78 %
A tidal flooding forecast has been issued for 03–07 December, with the highest risk window expected from 03–05 December. Impacts are likely across coastal roads, fishing harbours, low-lying neighbourhoods and port operations in Padang and Pariaman. Businesses should anticipate 48–120 hours of intermittent disruption.
Known Hotspots & Sensitive Zones
High-Impact Zones: Padang coastal kelurahan (Muaro, Kampung Pondok), Padang–Pariaman shoreline, Teluk Bayur port approaches, fishing harbours
Medium-Impact Zones: Low-lying market zones, estuary-adjacent settlements and coastal warehouses.
Low-Impact Zones: Inland districts with stable elevation and functioning drainage.
These areas frequently experience overtopping during seasonal high-wave episodes.
Impact on Transportation & Services
Tidal flooding may cause temporary closures on Padang–Pariaman coastal routes and segments of the Padang coastal road, leading to delays for local logistics and commuter traffic. Small-boat services and nearshore fishing operations are likely to be suspended. Port operations at Teluk Bayur may face reduced unloading efficiency. Inland rail services remain operational, but road access to stations may be disrupted. Businesses may experience slower deliveries, reduced footfall and limited access to coastal assets.
Recommended Action
Immediate:
• Activate incident command structures and conduct regular briefings using updated BMKG information.
• Evacuate staff and residents from high-risk coastal zones; confirm headcount and track personnel safety.
• Move inventory and equipment to higher ground; secure outdoor assets against wave-driven debris.
Operational:
• Reroute supply chains to inland terminals; adjust delivery schedules and notify customers of expected delays.
• Establish an emergency order desk and prioritize service continuity for essential clients.
• Maintain documentation for regulatory reporting and insurance.
Strategic:
• Enhance long-term coastal risk planning, including improved drainage, reinforced storage locations and early-warning integration with local authorities.
Multi-Dimensional Impact
Recent flash floods and landslides in Padang, Agam and Lembah Anai may complicate response operations. Repair works on temporary access roads could be disrupted, and shelter capacity may be strained as tidal events increase displacement. Humanitarian resources may be diverted from ongoing recovery efforts.
Emergency Contacts
- Emergency Services: 112
- Ambulance: 118
Situational Outlook
Baseline (sixty percent) suggests localised overtopping with temporary suspension of small-boat operations and minor road closures. A moderate escalation (thirty percent) could mean higher waves and peak tides cause deeper inundation, extended port delays and secondary inland flooding, while a severe escalation (ten percent) could mean combined tidal, wave and river flooding lead to structural damage, prolonged port shutdowns and widespread displacement.
Strategic Takeaway
The tidal flooding risk is moderate but operationally significant due to coastal exposure and ongoing recovery burdens in the region. Businesses should strengthen real-time monitoring, ensure proactive asset protection and use advanced early-warning tools such as MitKat’s Datasurfr to improve preparedness, response coordination and continuity planning. Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.
