Operational Context
Nationwide labour groups led by KSPI are conducting coordinated demonstrations on 24 November across Jakarta, Surabaya, West Java and East Java. Such protests have been recurrent through 2024–2025, typically concentrating at the Presidential Palace (Istana Merdeka), Patung Kuda, and the DPR/MPR complex. Previous mobilisations on 30 October and 10 June resulted in temporary road closures, public transport disruptions, and police dispersal operations. Current assemblies mirror established protest patterns, with high crowd density expected along Jalan Merdeka Selatan, Jalan MH Thamrin, and Medan Merdeka corridors.
Executive Summary
- Event Date: 24 November 2025
- Location: Jakarta (primary), Surabaya, West Java, East Java, Indonesia
- Risk Category: Civil Disturbance
- Severity Level: 3 / 5
- Confidence Score: 78 %
Large labour groups have mobilised in Central Jakarta near Istana Merdeka and DPR/MPR, demanding labour policy reforms. Significant ground congestion, police containment, and intermittent clashes are likely. Disruption to mobility, business operations, and logistics may persist for 12–36 hours, with residual impacts up to 72 hours in affected districts.
Current Updates
Reinforced police deployments are active around Istana Merdeka and the parliamentary complex. Demonstrators are attempting to move along Jalan Merdeka Selatan and surrounding corridors, prompting traffic diversions and possible tactical dispersal measures. Injuries and arrests are possible based on prior events, though no mass-casualty incidents reported so far.
Known Hotspots & Sensitive Zones
High-Impact Zones: Istana Merdeka, DPR/MPR complex, Patung Kuda, Medan Merdeka corridors
Medium-Impact Zones: Gambir, Monas vicinity, embassy clusters along Medan Merdeka, key intersections feeding Thamrin and Sudirman
Low-Impact Zones: Peripheral Jakarta districts; secondary roads in Surabaya and West Java
Impact on Transportation & Services
Major arterial closures and TransJakarta diversions likely on Thamrin–Merdeka corridors; Gambir station access and bus routes may be suspended or rerouted. Last-mile deliveries and scheduled government consignments will face 24–72-hour delays. Expect elevated ride-hailing demand and pinch points at alternative crossing routes; emergency vehicle priority lanes must be coordinated with police.
Recommended Action
Immediate Measures:
- Activate Incident Command
- Enforce remote-first work for non-essential staff
- Restrict travel through Merdeka–Thamrin corridors; provide verified route advisories.
- Secure facilities with controlled entry, CCTV monitoring, and alternate egress routes.
Strategic Measures:
- Build continuously updated mobility dashboards; integrate alert feeds from local police.
- Strengthen supply chain resilience with alternative warehouses and flexible fulfilment nodes.
Multidimensional Impact
Demonstrations coincide with Nataru travel preparations and ongoing coastal flood advisories, amplifying congestion, cargo delays, and access challenges across Central Jakarta.
Emergency Contacts
- Jakarta Police Hotline: 110
- Jakarta Command Center: 112
- TransJakarta Information: 1500-102
Situational Outlook
Baseline (70%): Contained demonstrations, day-long disruption, limited scuffles; clearance within 24–48 hours.
Moderate Escalation (25%): Attempts to breach police lines; repeated closures, police dispersal, prolonged access issues.
Severe Escalation (5%): Multi-province unrest, widespread blockades, extended business disruption.
Strategic Takeaway
The demonstrations are unlikely to produce severe instability but will significantly disrupt movement and operations in central districts. Organizations should maintain heightened situational awareness and utilise early-warning tools such as Datasurfr’s Predict for real-time alerts, scenario modelling, and continuity planning. Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.
