What is the monsoon forecast for India in 2026?
The 2026 Southwest monsoon is forecast to be below normal and erratic, compounded by an 80 percent probability of an El Niño event during June–August 2026, according to the World Meteorological Organization. The India Meteorological Department forecasts rainfall at 90–95 percent of the Long Period Average. The season is expected to feature prolonged dry spells punctuated by intense, short-duration heavy rainfall events. Rainfall deficits are most likely in Northwest and Central India, while Northeast India and the Western Ghats may experience extreme rainfall events, increasing landslide and flash flood risks. The pre-monsoon season was marked by severe heatwaves, leading to higher evaporation rates from reservoirs and compounding water security risks.
Which regions in India are most vulnerable?
Key vulnerable regions include Delhi-NCR (Minto Bridge, ITO, Ring Road, Pul Prahladpur, Zakhira), Haryana (Gurugram-Manesar, Faridabad), Punjab (Bathinda, Mansa, Fazilka), Rajasthan (Jaisalmer, Barmer, Bikaner), Uttar Pradesh (Noida, Ghaziabad, Saharanpur), Uttarakhand (Chamoli, Uttarkashi), Himachal Pradesh (Kullu, Mandi, Shimla), Jammu and Kashmir (Chenab Valley, Srinagar), Ladakh (Leh, Kargil), Maharashtra (Mumbai: Andheri, Hindmata, Kurla; Pune: Sinhagad Road, Hinjewadi), Gujarat (Vadodara, Surat, Ahmedabad), Goa (Panaji, Mapusa), Madhya Pradesh (Indore, Bhopal), Chhattisgarh (Bastar), West Bengal (Kolkata: Central Avenue, Behala), Bihar (Patna, North Bihar districts), Jharkhand (Dhanbad, Ranchi), Odisha (Paradip, Cuttack), Sikkim (NH-10 corridor), Northeast India (Assam: Dhemaji, Lakhimpur, Guwahati; Meghalaya: Shillong; Manipur: Imphal), Karnataka (Bengaluru: Outer Ring Road, Whitefield; Kodagu), Telangana (Hyderabad: Madhapur, Kukatpally), Andhra Pradesh (Visakhapatnam, Kakinada), Tamil Nadu (Chennai: Velachery, Sholinganallur), and Kerala (Idukki, Wayanad, Kochi).
What are the key risks and impacts?
Key risks include acute water scarcity impacting industrial operations and hydropower generation; severe supply chain disruptions due to flooding and damage to critical infrastructure; urban waterlogging and flash floods; landslides in hilly regions; power outages; and waterborne diseases. By mid-May 2026, thirteen major reservoirs had fallen below 50 percent of normal storage, posing a direct threat to drinking water supplies and industrial use. Industrial production could be lowered due to reduced power and water availability. The Reserve Bank of India might face slowing growth and rising inflationary pressures. Recent pre-monsoon events, such as flash floods in Saharanpur in late May 2026, underscore the vulnerability of transport infrastructure. Monsoon-induced hardships can exacerbate social instability, with protests over water shortages possible.
What should organisations and individuals do to prepare?
Organisations should implement dynamic work-from-home policies triggered by IMD ‘Orange’ or ‘Red’ alerts. Review flood insurance for all properties, particularly for basement and ground-floor assets. Secure backup water storage and power generation capabilities. Identify alternative logistics routes and warehousing options on higher ground. For manufacturing units in vulnerable areas, elevate critical machinery and electrical panels and ensure robust on-site drainage systems. Establish strict, real-time trigger protocols tied to local IMD warnings. Monitor water levels in major rivers and reservoirs. Ensure business continuity plans are robust and tested. Individuals should avoid travel through flooded roads, underpasses, and low-lying stretches during heavy rainfall. Do not enter roads with visible backflow or unclear water depth. Keep mobile phones charged and maintain drinking water, medicines, dry food, and essential documents in waterproof storage. Use official weather, traffic, and civic channels before beginning travel. Avoid parking vehicles in basements or near stormwater drains during active rainfall warnings. Report fallen wires, sewage overflow, and blocked drains through official channels.
Frequently asked questions
When is the monsoon season in India in 2026?
The Southwest monsoon runs from June to September. IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall at 90–95 percent of the Long Period Average, with an 80 percent probability of El Niño during June–August 2026.
Which regions in India are most prone to flooding?
Vulnerable regions include Delhi-NCR, Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, Kerala, and Uttarakhand. Key hotspots include Minto Bridge, ITO, Andheri, Hindmata, Sinhagad Road, Outer Ring Road, Madhapur, Velachery, and Guwahati.
What are the emergency contact numbers for India?
Nationwide: All-in-One Emergency (ERSS) 112, Police 100, Ambulance 108/102, Fire 101, Women’s Helpline 1091/181, Child Helpline 1098, Senior Citizen Helpline 14567.
Download the full advisory now
datasurfr’s Special Advisory on Monsoon 2026 Safety and Preparedness for India carries the complete state-level risk assessment, the full list of vulnerable areas, and a detailed contacts directory. Download the full advisory now to brief your travel and continuity teams.
Filed under: India-South AsiaThreat Intelligence Special Reports
