What is the current status of the Iran–US–Israel escalation?
The conflict entered a volatile phase following Operation Epic Fury on 28 February, followed by a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire implemented on 8 April. However, the ceasefire has remained under pressure, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. On 28 May, Kuwait faced a missile and drone attack, while Iran acknowledged launching an attack in the region.
The report also records further US defensive actions, Iranian retaliatory activity and continuing diplomatic efforts around maritime access and regional security. These developments leave the operating environment exposed to renewed escalation.
Diplomatic positions remain difficult to reconcile, with Iran seeking conditions around maritime access while the US has rejected unilateral Iranian oversight of the Strait.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz important for global business?
The Strait of Hormuz has become the central commercial risk point in the Iran US Israel escalation. The report states that commercial traffic declined by approximately 97 percent during the first quarter of 2026, with more than 800 vessels stranded west of the chokepoint.
Commercial vessels have faced projectile, drone and other maritime threats, while war-risk insurance premiums increased significantly. Several major insurers reportedly withdrew war-risk coverage for Hormuz transits, encouraging shipowners to avoid the corridor.
Companies have consequently shifted traffic towards longer alternative corridors, including routes around the Cape of Good Hope. This creates higher costs, longer transit times and increased concentration risk along alternative maritime routes.
How could the escalation affect energy markets and supply chains?
The affected maritime corridors handle nearly 20 percent of global seaborne oil and LNG flows. The report states that disruption to more than 11 million barrels per day of Gulf crude exports and approximately 80 million tonnes per annum of Qatari LNG shipments has generated international supply pressures.
Europe is particularly exposed to LNG disruption because of its dependence on Qatari supplies. Higher energy and industrial feedstock costs have already created additional pressure for European chemical, steel and advanced manufacturing sectors.
For businesses, this could translate into higher fuel, freight, manufacturing and imported-goods costs. Energy-intensive companies may face additional operating pressure, while import-dependent economies could experience higher import bills and market volatility.
What other business risks could emerge from the escalation?
The risks extend beyond energy and shipping. Companies operating across Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran and the Gulf may need to activate shelter-in-place, work-from-home, travel suspension and local security procedures.
Cyber risk is another concern. The report identifies potential attacks against banks, ports, airlines, hospitals, utilities, telecom operators and government systems, including ransomware, DDoS attacks, data leaks and GPS spoofing.
Infrastructure damage could also affect ports, refineries, power plants, desalination facilities and telecom networks. Undersea cable disruption could have wider consequences for banking, cloud services, communications and shipping coordination.
Businesses should therefore consider the conflict as a multi-sector operational risk rather than solely a security or geopolitical issue.
How should businesses prepare for further regional escalation?
Organisations should identify critical shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf ports, Red Sea routes and Gulf aviation hubs and establish alternate routing options. Alternative corridors through Oman, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Red Sea ports may provide options, although these can involve higher costs and limited capacity.
Companies should map suppliers according to country, port, airport, energy exposure, sanctions exposure and proximity to conflict zones. They should also diversify freight forwarders, secure alternate warehousing and maintain visibility over cargo in transit.
For personnel, businesses should update emergency contacts, test communications, review evacuation vendors and establish clear relocation criteria. Critical teams should be able to operate remotely through secure VPNs, tested collaboration systems, backup communications and alternative data centres.
Insurance coverage should also be reviewed for war risk, political violence, terrorism, business interruption, marine cargo, aviation, cyber incidents and evacuation support.
Frequently asked questions
What is the main business risk from the Iran–US–Israel escalation?
The main risks include disruption to shipping and energy flows, higher insurance and transport costs, supply-chain delays, financial-market volatility, sanctions exposure, cyber threats and potential restrictions on employee movement.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz important?
The Strait is a critical maritime chokepoint for global energy and trade. The report states that affected corridors account for nearly 20 percent of global seaborne oil and LNG flows, meaning prolonged disruption could create significant energy and shipping-market impacts.
What should businesses do if the situation worsens?
Businesses should diversify shipping routes, increase cargo visibility, review supplier and sanctions exposure, strengthen remote-working capabilities, test emergency communications, review insurance coverage and establish clear criteria for staff relocation or evacuation.
Download the full advisory now
For the complete assessment of the Iran US Israel escalation, including maritime, energy, humanitarian, cyber, financial and business-continuity risks, download the full MitKat Special Report.
Filed under: EMEAThreat Intelligence Special Reports
