January 2026 is shaping up as one of the busier months on the India-South Asia risk calendar, with harvest festivals, civic elections, parliamentary sittings and regional political mobilisation all converging within a few weeks. MitKat’s Monthly Risk Forecast maps the events business leaders across the region should be tracking, from Mumbai’s ballot boxes to protest movements in Islamabad and Colombo.
Festivals converge across India
Pongal (13-17 January), Lohri and Makar Sankranti (13-14 January) and Magh Bihu (15 January) will draw large crowds to temples, processions and open grounds in cities including Chennai, Madurai, Delhi, Guwahati and Chandigarh. The festivals carry a low risk of communal unrest, but the convergence of multiple observances in a short window is expected to pressure transport networks, increase road congestion and bring intermittent bank holidays at state and district level.
Power-sector strikes and civic polls
The Vidyut Karmchari Sanyukt Sangharsh Samiti will lead protests across Uttar Pradesh from 1 January, building to a major rally in Lucknow on 21 January, while Punjab State Power Corporation employees stage a hunger strike over land-sale plans. The National Coordination Committee of Electricity Employees and Engineers has called a 30 January demonstration at Jantar Mantar demanding withdrawal of the Electricity Amendment Bill. Meanwhile, Mumbai’s BMC elections on 15 January, the first civic polls since 2017, bring heightened security and traffic restrictions to Greater Mumbai, with results declared on 16 January.
South Asia: elections, protests and unrest
Bangladesh’s political temperature is rising ahead of its 12 February national election, with campaigning expected to intensify through late January amid recent unrest following the killing of a youth political leader. Pakistan’s PTI has signalled a nationwide protest campaign demanding Imran Khan’s release following his sentencing in the Toshakhana-II case, while Sri Lanka’s opposition parties plan a second anti-government rally after November’s Nugegoda demonstration, and Nepal marks Unity Day on 11 January amid continued political sensitivity following last year’s government collapse.
December in review
December 2025 saw significant disruption that carries into January: IndiGo’s operational crisis cancelled around 4,500 flights nationwide, Delhi-NCR’s GRAP-IV measures triggered work-from-home orders amid severe air quality, and nationwide Congress-led protests against the MGNREGA name change are set to resume from 5 January. Businesses should factor continued fog-related flight delays and residual protest activity into January planning.
Download the full monthly forecast
The MitKat India-South Asia Monthly Risk Forecast providing country-by-country forecasts, an event calendar and detailed coverage of December’s high-impact developments. Download the full forecast now to plan your month ahead.
What is inside
- January 2026 brings a cluster of Indian festivals, including Pongal, Lohri, Makar Sankranti and Magh Bihu between 13 and 17 January, alongside BMC civic polls on 15 January and Republic Day on 26 January.
- Power-sector unions in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab have announced strikes, culminating in a 30 January rally at Jantar Mantar demanding withdrawal of the Electricity Amendment Bill.
- Bangladesh's 13th National Parliamentary Election on 12 February is driving heightened political activity, with campaigning expected to peak in late January.
- Pakistan's Tehreek-e-Insaf has warned of a nationwide protest campaign demanding Imran Khan's release, while Sri Lanka's opposition plans a second anti-government rally following November's Nugegoda protest.
Filed under: India-South AsiaRegional Risk Reviews