What is El Niño 2026-27?
El Niño 2026-27 is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally recurring climate pattern centred in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific, which alter atmospheric circulation and influence weather patterns worldwide. According to NOAA’s June 2026 assessment, El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27, with a 63% probability of developing into a very strong event. Historically, stronger El Niño events are associated with more substantial departures from average seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing the likelihood of flooding in some regions and drought in others. However, El Niño influences the probability of certain climate conditions rather than determining individual weather events.
What are the expected regional impacts?
North America: Above-average winter rainfall and increased storm activity across California, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast, raising flood risk. Northern states face milder, drier conditions. Canada: Milder winter temperatures, variable rainfall, reduced snowfall affecting hydropower and wildfire management. Mexico: Above-average winter rainfall in the north and central regions, increasing flood risk. South America: Brazil faces drought and wildfire risk in the north and northeast, heavier rainfall and flood risk in the south. Argentina: Wetter conditions in central zones, drier in the northwest. Chile: Above-normal rainfall from Coquimbo to Magallanes, with mudslide and river-overflow risks. Peru: Coastal El Niño brings heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides; a state of emergency covers 796 districts across 22 regions. Ecuador: Flood-led El Niño risk concentrated in Manabí, Santa Elena, Guayas, El Oro and Esmeraldas. Colombia: Drought-led pattern with reduced rainfall, reservoir stress and wildfire risk. Central America: Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama face drought, water stress and wildfire risk. Panama Canal watershed faces reduced reservoir levels, threatening transit capacity. Caribbean: Cuba and Haiti face elevated drought risk and infrastructure strain. Africa: East Africa (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia) faces heavy rainfall and flooding; Southern Africa (South Africa, Zambia, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, Malawi) faces severe drought and water shortages. Middle East: Extreme summer heat, erratic winter rainfall and flash flood risks. Europe: Extreme heat, drought, heavy winter rainfall and flooding, with river low water affecting shipping and manufacturing.
What are the business continuity risks?
Businesses face supply chain disruptions from flooding, landslides, port closures, road closures and rail delays. Energy systems face volatility from hydropower stress, increased cooling demand and grid overload. Agriculture faces crop failures, livestock losses and price volatility. Water scarcity affects industrial operations, mining, manufacturing and data centres. Wildfire risk threatens assets, insurance premiums and workforce safety. Logistics networks face delays from canal transit restrictions, river low water and storm damage. Financial markets face volatility from commodity price swings. Cyber risk remains elevated for energy, shipping, financial and government sectors.
What should organisations and individuals do to prepare?
Organisations should prepare for extreme heat with flexible working hours, shaded rest areas, hydration breaks and remote work. In flood-prone areas, inspect drainage, secure outdoor equipment and review evacuation procedures. Test backup power, generators, UPS systems and fuel reserves. Create water conservation plans and secure alternative water sources. Conduct fire safety audits during drought periods. Prepare alternate logistics routes for floods, landslides, storms, port closures and road closures. Maintain electrical equipment, cooling systems and servers. Monitor official heat alerts, rainfall warnings, flood advisories, storm warnings and wildfire updates. Individuals should stay indoors during peak heat, avoid non-essential travel during floods and storms, conserve water during droughts, and keep an emergency kit with water, food, medicines, flashlights and documents. Never walk or drive through floodwater. Monitor official weather forecasts and emergency notifications.
Frequently asked questions
When will El Niño 2026-27 peak?
It is expected to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27, with a 63% probability of becoming a very strong event.
Which regions are most at risk?
Peru, Ecuador, Panama, Brazil, Colombia, South Africa, Zambia, Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia face Very High or High risk. The Middle East and Europe face High risk from heat, drought and flooding.
What should businesses do?
Review contingency plans, test backup power, secure water sources, prepare alternate logistics routes, and monitor official meteorological updates.
Download the full advisory now
MitKat’s Special Report on the El Niño Effect across EMEA and Americas Regions carries the complete regional impact assessment, country-by-country risk levels, and recommendations. Download the full advisory now to brief your travel and continuity teams.
Filed under: AmericasEMEAThreat Intelligence Special Reports
