MitKat Advisory’s Risk Flash tracks the developing weather system over the Bay of Bengal and its likely path toward India’s east coast. With the forecast probability of cyclogenesis rising sharply over the coming days, the flash sets out what is known so far and the practical steps organizations and residents in the likely landfall zone should take.
What the Risk Flash covers
The flash profiles RSMC New Delhi’s 168-hour tropical weather outlook, the projected track of the cyclonic circulation from the north Andaman Sea toward the Odisha-Andhra Pradesh coast, and the potential impact on the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, coastal Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. It closes with practical recommendations and emergency contact details.
Rising probability of cyclogenesis
The probability of a low-pressure area forming has been upgraded from the previous outlook’s moderate peak, now rated NIL through 20 September, LOW on 21 September, MODERATE on 22 September and HIGH on 23 September. This marks a significant firming of the forecast, though the India Meteorological Department has not yet forecast a cyclonic storm.
Early impact on the Andaman & Nicobar Islands
The islands are likely to see the earliest effects, from around 18 and 19 September, as the circulation emerges over the north Andaman Sea. Heavy rainfall, squally winds and rough sea conditions are expected to disrupt inter-island ferry services, port operations at Port Blair, and air connectivity.
Flood risk across coastal Odisha and Andhra Pradesh
As the system tracks west-northwest, south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh districts including Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Srikakulam, Vizianagaram and Visakhapatnam, along with other southern states such as Tamil Nadu, face heavy to very heavy rainfall, flooding in low-lying areas, urban waterlogging, landslide risk in hilly terrain and overflowing rivers.
Thunderstorm and gusty-wind alerts
Odisha is under yellow alerts for isolated thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds of 30 to 40 kilometres per hour from 18 to 21 September, while Andhra Pradesh faces similar alerts with winds reaching 30 to 50 kilometres per hour over the same window. Additional isolated heavy rainfall is forecast for several Andhra Pradesh districts on 22 September.
Infrastructure and logistics disruption
Heavy rainfall could cause waterlogging, fallen trees and debris on roads, lengthening transit times and disrupting logistics across the affected coastline. Power and telecommunications infrastructure may also face outages and network degradation if conditions worsen.
What residents and businesses should do
MitKat advises avoiding flooded roads, waterlogged underpasses and landslide-prone stretches in the Eastern Ghats and coastal Odisha-Andhra Pradesh belt during periods of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. Residents in coastal, low-lying and flood-prone areas of Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands should maintain essential supplies, including drinking water, food, medicines, flashlights and backup power sources, given the potential formation of a tropical depression and subsequent heavy rainfall. Key emergency contacts include the National Emergency Hotline (112), the India Meteorological Department, and the NDRF.
Download the full Risk Flash now
This blog summarises MitKat Advisory’s single-page Risk Flash on the developing Bay of Bengal situation. Download the full report now to stay updated
Filed under: APACRegional Risk Reviews