KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on 12 November 2026 that an upper air cyclonic circulation over the southeast Bay of Bengal is expected to develop into a Depression by 15 November, with no landfall projected for now.
- The expected sequence is a low pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal on 13 November, a well marked low pressure area on 14 November and a Depression on 15 November. For 14–16 November, datasurfr’s Risk Flash expects isolated to scattered light to moderate rain in coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema, and isolated to scattered rain with occasional thunderstorms in northern coastal Tamil Nadu, with no severe weather warnings expected at present.
- Fishing is likely to be suspended in the Andaman Sea and the southeast and southwest Bay of Bengal through 16–17 November, and vessels off Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, Gangavaram, Krishnapatnam and Chennai may face slowdowns. Airports at Visakhapatnam, Vijayawada, Tirupati and Chennai are expected to operate normally through 16 November.
- Coastal Andhra Pradesh is still recovering from two successive cyclones, Arnab and Murasu, so isolated power feeder trips, waterlogging and damaged rural roads are possible.
- Coastal Andhra Pradesh is still recovering from two successive cyclones, Arnab and Murasu, so isolated power feeder trips, waterlogging and damaged rural roads are possible.
- If the system tracks closer to the south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coast around 17–18 November, impacts could grow. This is a live-event summary of a 12 November Risk Flash.
A new weather system is developing over the Bay of Bengal while coastal Andhra Pradesh is still recovering from recent cyclones. This is a live-event summary of datasurfr’s Risk Flash. Weather systems can change quickly and forecasts are uncertain, so check IMD’s latest bulletins before you act.
What is the Bay of Bengal system expected to do by 15 November?
According to the IMD Tropical Weather Outlook issued on 12 November, an upper air cyclonic circulation was located over the southeast Bay of Bengal at 0830 hours IST that day, extending up to 1.5 kilometres above mean sea level. It is expected to develop into a Depression by 15 November, and there is currently no information on the possibility of landfall. The Risk Flash adds that reports indicate the system could bring fresh rain to Andhra Pradesh after the state was hit by two successive cyclones, Arnab and Murasu. The expected sequence is shown below.
| Date | Expected stage | Notes |
| 12 Nov | Upper air cyclonic circulation | Located over the southeast Bay of Bengal, extending to 1.5 km above mean sea level at 0830 hours IST |
| 13 Nov | Low pressure area | Likely to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal and move northwestwards |
| 14 Nov | Well marked low pressure area | May form over the southeast Bay of Bengal |
| 15 Nov | Depression | Expected to form over the same region; no landfall currently projected |
What weather is expected in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and nearby states from 14 to 16 November?
In Andhra Pradesh, the Risk Flash expects isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall, with no severe weather warnings expected at present; the vulnerable areas are coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema. In Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, it expects isolated to scattered rain with occasional thunderstorms, with northern coastal Tamil Nadu the most vulnerable. Odisha is expected to see minimal or no direct impact, and Telangana and Karnataka are expected to stay largely dry, with no depression-related alerts.
How could the system affect ports, flights, trains and roads?
On maritime operations, the report says fishing is likely to be suspended in the Andaman Sea and the southeast and southwest Bay of Bengal because of squally winds and rough seas through 16–17 November, and vessels off Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, Gangavaram, Krishnapatnam and Chennai may face slowdowns. Flights crossing the Bay of Bengal may face turbulence and possible rerouting, depending on the Depression’s intensity, but Visakhapatnam, Vijayawada, Tirupati and Chennai airports are expected to operate normally through 16 November. Rail disruption on the East Coast Railway and South Central Railway is expected to be minimal through 16 November, although if the system tracks closer to the south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coast around 17–18 November, heavy rain bands could cause localised waterlogging or speed restrictions in low-lying stretches such as the Nellore–Ongole–Gudur corridor. On roads, localised waterlogging is likely in urban low-lying areas and along major highways in coastal Andhra Pradesh, and recently repaired rural roads damaged in the cyclones may remain vulnerable to soil erosion and mudslides.
What are the risks for power, telecoms and business operations?
No widespread structural wind damage is expected if the system stays offshore. Because coastal Andhra Pradesh is recovering from two cyclones, however, isolated power feeder trips cannot be ruled out, as poles may be weakened. If the system develops into a cyclone, the report expects school closures, lower workforce attendance, power cuts and transport disruption to affect offices, manufacturing units and warehouses in coastal Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu beyond 15 November.
What should businesses and travellers do?
The Risk Flash advises avoiding non-essential travel to and within coastal Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu during 14–16 November. Businesses should secure loose materials, signage and rooftop equipment, protect ground-floor stock and IT assets from possible waterlogging, and check generator fuel and backup power. Logistics and supply chain teams should reschedule shipments, confirm port, rail and airline status directly with operators, and build buffer time into delivery schedules.
Frequently asked questions
Will the Bay of Bengal system make landfall?
The Risk Flash says there is currently no information on the possibility of landfall, and none is projected. The forecast can change, and the report flags 17–18 November as the period when a track closer to the south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coast could raise the impact.
Are flights and trains affected?
Airports at Visakhapatnam, Vijayawada, Tirupati and Chennai are expected to operate normally through 16 November, and rail disruption is expected to be minimal over the same period.
Are fishermen advised to go to sea?
Fishing is likely to be suspended in the Andaman Sea and the southeast and southwest Bay of Bengal through 16–17 November because of squally winds and rough seas.
What are the emergency and helpline numbers?
National Emergency Response: 112; Police: 100; Fire: 101; Ambulance: 108; State Emergency Operation Centre helpline (Andhra Pradesh and other states): 1070; District Control Rooms: 1077; Railway helpline: 139; IMD National Weather Forecasting Centre: 011-2434-4599 (mausam.imd.gov.in).
Stay updated
This is a live-event summary of the 12 November Risk Flash, and the system’s development and track may change. Monitor IMD bulletins, state disaster management authorities and railway, port and airline notices directly, and refer to datasurfr’s Risk Flash service for consolidated, business-focused updates.
Filed under: India-South AsiaRegional Risk Reviews
