MitKat Advisory’s Asia-Pacific Monthly Risk Forecast for December 2025 brings together the region’s key commemorative events, sporting fixtures, weather hazards and geopolitical flashpoints into a single monthly briefing, supported by the datasurfr platform’s curated event monitoring.
What the Forecast covers
The forecast opens with an executive summary of the late-November to December period, sets out a country-by-country forecast for December across East Asia, Oceania and Southeast Asia, reviews high-impact developments from November, and closes with a full event calendar for the region.
Holiday-season crowd and security management
China, Hong Kong and Macau face extensive traffic and security measures for Christmas and New Year events from 25-31 December, with nearly thirty countdown events in Beijing alone, while China’s Nanjing Massacre memorial on 13 December and December marathons in Macau and Angkor Wat bring further road closures and heightened security deployments.
Rising Japan-China and border tensions
Comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could be existential for Japan have sharpened tensions around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, while a suspended peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia points to continued fragility along their shared border.
An early and intense influenza surge
China, Japan, Hong Kong and Macau are managing an early and intense influenza surge attributed largely to a mutated H3N2 strain. Disruption to business operations has remained minimal so far, but travellers are advised to follow local health advisories closely.
Back-to-back typhoons and a sharp cold snap
Typhoon Fung-wong caused significant disruption across Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines, while Typhoon Kalmaegi brought destructive winds and flooding to the Central Philippines, particularly Cebu. South Korea, meanwhile, recorded its first sub-zero temperatures of the season during an early-November cold wave, with further severe cold spells expected.
Civil activism and labour unrest
Indonesia saw major labour unrest on 20 November over the 2026 Provincial Minimum Wage decision, alongside protests following the posthumous naming of former President Suharto as a national hero. Anti-corruption demonstrations filled Manila’s Rizal Park, and protests against an Indo-Pacific maritime exposition and deep-sea mining were reported in Sydney and Auckland.
What businesses should do
Organizations operating in or around Nanjing, Beijing, Hong Kong and Macau should plan for road closures, rerouted transport and reduced mobility around commemorative and holiday events through late December. Firms with staff or logistics exposure in Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines should track typhoon recovery and the Japan-China diplomatic situation, while those in Indonesia and the Philippines should monitor labour unrest and civic activism for potential supply-chain and mobility disruption.
Download the report now
The Asia-Pacific Monthly Risk Forecast, with country-level detail across East Asia and Southeast Asia, and a complete event calendar. Download the report now to plan your operations across APAC.
Filed under: APACRegional Risk Reviews