MitKat’s Africa & Middle East Risk Outlook 2026 is an annual, country-by-country assessment covering 26 African markets from Algeria to Zambia and 13 Middle Eastern markets from Bahrain to Yemen, examining the geopolitical, security, climate and regulatory conditions shaping business continuity across the two regions. Published in February 2026, the Outlook captured a period in which stable gas exports, upstream investment and digital modernisation continued alongside more assertive regional postures, recurring climate stress, and a fast-tightening compliance environment for operators.
Geopolitical and security spillovers in Africa
Geopolitical and security spillover is flagged as the most significant operational risk across the African markets assessed. Algeria has demonstrated a more assertive regional posture over the past year, including airspace closures with Sahel neighbours, heightened tensions with Morocco, and strained relations with France, an approach that increases the likelihood of sudden operational disruption such as flight diversions, border delays and episodic diplomatic measures affecting visas and permits. Domestic civic pressures, including sectoral labour unrest and water-related protests following the 2024 presidential cycle, add a further layer of localized disruption risk for businesses operating in the market.
Middle East escalation and maritime risk
The Middle East corridor spanning Iran, Iraq, Israel and the Gulf states saw a sharp 2025 escalation cycle involving Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iranian missile retaliation, and subsequent US strikes, alongside Iranian retaliation that included the closure of Qatari airspace on 23 June 2025. Bahrain’s exposure illustrates the wider pattern, with repatriation of citizens and US military dependents during regional flare-ups, and continuing Red Sea insecurity linked to Yemen’s conflict, all raising the probability of aviation, port and airport disruption for operators across the Gulf.
Climate stress and civic pressures
Climate and resource stress is a structurally rising risk across both regions, with water scarcity, extreme heat days, and highland zones prone to flash flooding and disruption increasingly treated as recurrent operational-continuity concerns rather than one-off events. In several African markets, this environmental pressure is compounding domestic civic pressures, including sectoral labour unrest and water-related protests, while in the Gulf, extreme summer heat is elevating asset and workforce resilience planning. Businesses are advised to treat these zones as recurrent disruption areas requiring enhanced site design and contingency planning.
Recommendations for organisations and individuals
Organisations operating across Africa and the Middle East are advised to diversify suppliers and logistics routes to manage airspace and border-closure risk, strengthen compliance frameworks around tightening data-protection and cross-border transfer rules, and maintain robust local stakeholder engagement in markets with elevated civic-pressure risk. Individuals and mobile staff should maintain heightened duty-of-care protocols for travel through the Gulf and Sahel-adjacent markets, monitor official travel advisories ahead of regional flare-ups, and factor in resilience planning for extreme-heat and water-stress conditions during peak season
Download the full risk outlook
MitKat’s Africa & Middle East risk Outlook 2026 covers detailed country-by-country risk profiles for 26 African and 13 Middle Eastern markets, regional maps, and sector-specific recommendations for organisations. Download the full outlook now for the complete analysis.
What is inside
- MitKat's Africa & Middle East Risk Outlook 2026 covers 26 African and 13 Middle Eastern markets, with geopolitical and security spillovers, including Algeria's more assertive regional posture and Sahel-related airspace closures, identified as the most significant operational risk for 2026.
- The Middle East corridor from Iran to Yemen and the Strait of Hormuz remains shaped by the 2025 Israel-Iran escalation cycle, subsequent US strikes, and continuing Red Sea insecurity, raising aviation, maritime and supply-chain disruption risk for operators across Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar and neighbouring states.
- Climate and resource stress, including water scarcity, heatwaves and highland disruption zones, is increasingly intertwined with civic and labour unrest, prompting sectoral protests and firmer domestic security postures in several African markets following recent presidential and electoral cycles.
- Regulatory tightening, including stricter data-protection and cross-border transfer rules, is raising the compliance and assurance burden on businesses even as upside potential continues in energy exports, upstream investment and digital-infrastructure modernisation across the region
Filed under: EMEARegional Risk Reviews
