Operational Context
The UAE periodically experiences unstable winter weather driven by mid-latitude troughs and convective systems, particularly during December. While generally short in duration, these events often generate concentrated rainfall over urban areas with drainage constraints and strong coastal winds affecting transport corridors and maritime activity. Historical events during 2024–2025 demonstrate repeatable disruption patterns, including flash flooding of roads, traffic gridlock, port delays and localized utility outages. The current forecast aligns with these patterns, requiring heightened operational readiness across transport, logistics, facilities management and public safety functions.
Executive Summary
- Event Date: 17-20 December
- Location: United Arab Emirates
- Risk Category: Environment
- Severity Level: 3 / 5
- Confidence Score: 78 %
Unstable weather conditions are forecast across the UAE through 20 December, with rainfall and strong winds expected to cause localized flooding, travel disruption and short-term business interruptions, particularly in coastal and northern emirates.
Known Hotspots & Sensitive Zones
- High Impact Zones: Coastal zones such as Dubai Marina, Jumeirah Beach Road, Corniche Abu Dhabi, and northern and eastern emirates including Sharjah, Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah.
- Medium Impact Zones: Mountainous wadis in Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah.
- Low Impact Zones: Jebel Ali Free Zone and Al Qusais and higher-elevation inland areas.
Impact on Transportation & Services
Road transport is expected to face intermittent disruption from flooded underpasses, reduced visibility and congestion on major corridors including Sheikh Zayed Road and Emirates Road. Coastal winds and elevated wave heights may affect ferry and small-craft services in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Air operations could experience minor delays during peak wind or low-visibility periods. Localized power outages and drainage stress may disrupt communications, retail operations and access to industrial facilities, particularly in low-lying areas.
Recommended Action
- Organizations should activate business continuity and incident response protocols, suspend non-essential outdoor activities and secure external assets.
- Flexible work arrangements and travel advisories should be issued to protect staff safety.
- Facilities teams should clear drains, deploy temporary flood protection and verify backup power readiness.
- Supply chain managers should confirm alternative routes and inland facilities, while continuous monitoring of advisories from the National Center of Meteorology and civil defence authorities is advised.
Multi-Dimensional Impact
Large outdoor gatherings, including religious and community events, face increased safety and access risks due to rain and wind. Emergency response prioritization for weather-related incidents may temporarily strain municipal services, affecting response times for unrelated events.
Emergency Contacts
- Emergency Services: 999
- National Center of Meteorology (NCM): mobile.ncm.gov.ae
- UAE Civil Defence: adcda.gov.ae/en
Situational Outlook
The most probable scenario involves short-duration but repeated rainfall and gusts over the next 48–96 hours, causing localized flooding, traffic disruption and minor utility outages, followed by gradual stabilization. Moderate escalation could extend impacts to ports and power distribution, while a severe escalation, though less likely, would result in widespread urban flooding and broader transport disruption requiring extended response.
Strategic Takeaway
The forecast unstable weather presents a moderate but manageable risk for the UAE, with impacts concentrated on mobility, logistics and outdoor operations. Proactive preparedness, real-time monitoring and early-warning tools such as MitKat’s Datasurfr are critical to reducing operational disruption and safeguarding people, assets and continuity during evolving weather conditions. Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.
