Operational Context
Tropical Depression Verbena is situated near the central Philippines and is expected to affect the Visayas and adjacent provinces over the next 48 to 120 hours. Based on previous weak-to-moderate systems passing through Iloilo, Cebu, Negros, Bohol and surrounding islands, peak disruption typically spans 24 to 72 hours, with runoff-related flooding persisting for several days. Storms of similar intensity have historically led to intense short-duration rainfall, flash floods, upland landslides, and significant interruptions to ferry and short-haul travel rather than widespread structural wind damage. Local governments and DRRMOs are preparing for possible evacuations and transport suspensions. Severity is assessed as moderate, and confidence remains at seventy percent due to early-stage intensity uncertainty but established rainfall patterns in affected regions.
Executive Summary
- Event Date: 25 November 2025
- Location: Iloilo City, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Antique, Biliran, Bohol, Cebu, Dinagat Islands, Masbate, Misamis Oriental, Palawan
- Risk Category: Natural Disasters
- Severity Level: 3 / 5
- Confidence Score: 70 %
Tropical Depression Verbena is expected to produce heavy to intense rainfall, flash flooding, and landslide risks across the Visayas and nearby islands. Transport disruptions, power outages and business interruptions are expected, particularly in flood-prone and upland barangays.
Current Updates
PAGASA advisories highlight heavy rainfall, gusty winds and potential landslides in Western, Central and Eastern Visayas. Local DRRMOs are preparing evacuation centres, and ferry suspensions are likely within 24 to 48 hours. Sea warnings and small-craft advisories remain in effect.
Known Hotspots & Sensitive Zones
High-Impact Zones:
- Low-lying barangays in Iloilo City and Bacolod
- Eastern Cebu coastal communities (Naga–Talisay)
- Upland barangays near Kanlaon and Negros slopes
Medium-Impact Zones:
- Coastal municipalities in Antique, Biliran and Bohol
- Provincial roads accessing floodplains and river basins
Low-Impact Zones:
- Interior barangays away from major rivers or steep terrain
Late November coincides with enhanced northeast monsoon activity, increasing flood likelihood.
Impact on Transportation & Services
- Roads: Temporary closures on Panay and Negros highways; landslides affecting Cebu South Road and mountain passes.
- Sea Transport: High probability of ferry and RO-RO cancellations on Cebu–Negros, Iloilo–Guimaras and other short-sea routes.
- Air Travel: Delays or temporary suspensions at Iloilo and Mactan–Cebu airports during peak rainfall.
- Business Operations: Reduced staffing, delayed deliveries and temporary store closures.
- Utilities/Comms: Intermittent power outages and localized telecom disruptions.
Recommended Action
Immediate Measures:
- Activate Tropical Depression Response Team; align thresholds with PAGASA alerts.
- Issue employee safety guidance and restrict non-essential travel.
- Secure facilities: anchor rooftop equipment, elevate critical inventory, prepare alternate storage.
- Enable remote-work infrastructure; ensure generator and UPS functionality.
- Publish customer advisories within two hours; maintain continuous updates during peak conditions.
Strategic Measures:
- Strengthen flood resilience of warehouses in low-lying areas.
- Expand logistics redundancy through secondary ports and inland routes.
- Maintain coordination with LGUs, DRRMOs and the NDRRMC for alerts and recovery timelines.
Multidimensional Impact
No secondary event interaction identified; however, persistent rain may compound pre-existing flood vulnerabilities in multiple provinces.
Emergency Contacts
- Emergency Hotline: 911
- Police: 117
- Fire: 160
- Ambulance: 143
- PAGASA: pagasa.dost.gov.ph
- NDRRMC: (02) 8911-5061 to 65
Situational Outlook
The most likely scenario (60%) is that Verbena brings heavy rainfall, flash floods, short-term power and communication outages, and ferry suspensions, with general recovery expected within one to three days. A moderate escalation (30%) could result in widespread flooding across major river basins, multi-day road closures, landslide-triggered blockages and extended delays across inter-island logistics. In the severe case (10%), rapid intensification and prolonged rainfall may trigger major riverine flooding, multiple large landslides, long-duration power and water outages, and extensive transport network damage that would necessitate a national-level emergency response.
Strategic Takeaway
Verbena presents a moderate but operationally significant hazard across the Visayas. Businesses should prioritize people safety, asset protection and continuity planning. Early-warning tools such as MitKat’s Datasurfr can support proactive decision-making through real-time alerts and scenario modelling. Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.
