Locations Affected: Poland
What: Karol Nawrocki, a historian backed by the opposition Law and Justice party (PiS), has won the presidential election in Poland. Poland’s Electoral Commission declared the results on 02 June, with Nawrocki receiving 50.89 percent of the vote, while his opponent, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, secured 49.11 percent. The election was a tight race, with exit polls initially suggesting a lead for Trzaskowski on 01 June. However, updated counts a few hours later indicated Nawrocki as the likely winner. Nawrocki will succeed incumbent President Andrzej Duda, whose term ends on 06 August. His campaign focused on nationalism, emphasizing concerns over immigration, national sovereignty, and traditional Catholic values. Nawrocki pledged to prioritize economic and social policies favouring Polish citizens over other nationalities, including refugees from Ukraine.
Background to the Political Gridlock
The current ruling party, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, is an ideologically diverse and politically fragile alliance that came to power in 2023 after eight years of PiS rule. However, PiS has retained the presidency, resulting in political gridlock and opposition to reforms proposed by the ruling coalition. While the prime minister holds most executive powers in Poland, the president can influence foreign policy and veto legislation. Parliament can overturn a presidential veto, but it requires a 60 percent majority, which the ruling coalition does not possess.
Implications of the Nawrocki’s Victory
- Nawrocki’s victory is also likely to increase pressure on PM Tusk, who has been unable to fulfil certain electoral promises made during his campaign in 2023, including civil union laws for same-sex couples and less restrictive abortion laws. Nawrocki, who opposes such measures, is likely to veto the legislations, leading to parliamentary delay and potential political deadlock.
- In 2017, the Law & Justice (PiS) party introduced a bill to politicise the judicial system. The reform handed over the control of judicial appointments and supreme court to the PiS, a move which the EU termed as undemocratic. Similar to his predecessor Duda, Nawrocki who is also backed by the PiS, is likely to use his presidential veto power to block the coalition government’s efforts to reverse the reform.
- Nawrocki and the PiS have criticized the EU’s overreach into Poland’s national affair, especially regarding the judicial reform as well as migration and energy policies. Nawrocki has opposed strengthening relations with the EU. His veto powers could restrict policies meant to align with EU standards and may also impact Poland’s relationship with European countries like Germany and France.
- Nawrocki has been a vocal supporter of United States President Donald Trump and is closely aligned with Trump’s nationalist values. Nawrocki visited the White House in May and was also endorsed by the Trump administration. Nawrocki is likely to prioritize improved ties with the US over the EU.
- Poland shares a border with both Russia and Ukraine and Russia’s aggression has increased concerns about national security. The president-in-waiting has strongly opposed Russia’s attacks in Ukraine and promised to maintain the country’s support for Ukraine. However, he has also been critical of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,
questioned long-term costs of aid and does not support Ukrainian membership to the NATO. Nawrocki’s term could see some changes in the ties between Poland and Ukraine, largely due to the growing concerns regarding Ukrainian refugees.
Outlook on the Situation
The parliament will hold a vote of confidence on 11 June, which PM Tusk is expected to survive, given his coalition’s parliamentary majority. While this may ease tensions in the short term, political and legislative deadlock is likely to persist due to diverging positions between Tusk and Nawrocki—particularly on issues such as EU relations, abortion rights, and immigration. Continued gridlock and legislative inaction could diminish public confidence in the ruling coalition and jeopardize its prospects in the 2027 parliamentary elections.
