Locations Affected: United States
The 60th US presidential election will be held on 05 November 2024. The election will decide the next president and vice president for a four-year term. President Joe Biden will complete his term in January 2025.
The election is determined by the Electoral College system. Each state’s Electoral College votes are based on its Congressional representation:
Senators: Each state has 02 Senators.
House Representatives: The number of Representatives is based on the state’s population.
Examples:
California: 02 Senators + 52 Representatives = 54 Electoral College votes.
Vermont: 02 Senators + 01 Representative = 03 Electoral College votes.
There are a total of 538 Electoral College votes. A candidate needs at least 270 votes to win the presidency.
While most states and Washington DC allocate all their Electoral College votes to the candidate who wins most votes in the state, Maine and Nebraska use a proportional method. The two states distribute their Electoral College votes based on the proportion of votes each candidate receives in each Congressional district, with the remaining votes going to the overall state winner. This method provides a more detailed representation of voter preferences in these states.
Key players:
- Democratic Party: Joe Biden initially planned to run for re-election in 2024 but withdrew on 21 July due to concerns from Democratic allies about his ability to serve another term because of his age. On 05 August, Vice President Kamala Harris, a former California senator and prosecutor, was officially named the Democratic nominee. Around USD 100 million were donated to her campaign in the first 36 hours after Biden endorsed her, and there has been renewed enthusiasm for the party, particularly from younger and women voters. She has selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
- Republican Party: Former President Donald Trump is the Republican candidate. He won the presidency in 2016 but lost in 2020. Most of his Republican challengers, including former Vice President Mike Pence and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, dropped out early and endorsed Trump. He chose Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his vice-presidential pick in July.
- Independent and Third-Party Candidates: In addition to Harris and Trump, independent candidate Cornel West and third-party candidates Jill Stein (Green Party) and Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party) are also running.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently suspended his independent campaign and endorsed Donald Trump. He stated he would remain on most ballots but remove his name from battleground states.
Important Factors:
Key issues such as abortion, border security, immigration, healthcare, education, the economy, foreign policy, LGBTQIA+ rights, and climate change policies, among others, are likely to impact voter turnout and election results.
- Battleground States: States like Texas, Kansas, and Alabama typically vote Republican, while California, New York, and Minnesota support Democrats. Swing states, which can be won by either party, are crucial in elections. According to the latest Cook Political Report, ten states—Nebraska, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina—are key battlegrounds likely to remain competitive, as they can be won by either party. These states also have a significant number of electoral votes, making them pivotal in the election outcome.
- Demographics: Issues like health, abortion, and reproductive rights have gained prominence during this election cycle, especially after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, allowing states to set their own abortion laws. Harris supports women’s issues, including abortion rights, paid parental leave, and childcare, which has boosted enthusiasm among Democratic women voters. In contrast, Republicans have advocated for abortion bans, and Trump has faced criticism for his attitudes toward women, particularly following a 2023 sexual abuse verdict. At 59, Harris is also younger than Trump, who is 78, potentially countering previous Republican criticisms of Biden’s age. Harris has appealed to younger voters and minority groups, enhancing her support through her pop culture presence and engagement.
- Migration: Migration is a major issue, with Biden criticized for his border policies. Harris, who handled diplomatic efforts in Central America, also faces scrutiny. Republicans are using migration to attack Biden and Harris, claiming Harris’s policies have led to a surge of migrants, including those from dangerous backgrounds.
- Foreign Policy: Amid the Israel-Hamas war, Republicans are pushing for stronger ties with Israel, while Democrats support Israel but call for a ceasefire and express concern about the humanitarian crisis. Harris’ foreign policy emphasizes multilateralism and strengthening global alliances, focusing on partnerships with traditional allies and international institutions, which may attract moderate voters. In contrast, Trump adopts a transactional approach, as seen in the past, prioritizing agreements that benefit the US. He has criticized aid to Ukraine, suggested renegotiating with Russia, and might reduce US support for Taiwan, appealing to voters who believe such investments harm the domestic economy.
- Economy: Economic dissatisfaction due to high inflation and other issues during the Biden administration may affect Harris’ candidacy. Despite her role in the administration, many voters view her economic influence as limited. Trump’s previous presidency, despite its controversies, is viewed favourably by some in terms of economic performance. Polls show Trump leading Harris on economic trust, indicating that Harris has yet to address voters’ concerns about her economic expertise effectively.
Outlook:
If Kamala Harris wins, she will make history as the first woman, first Black woman, and first South Asian American President of the US, marking a significant cultural milestone compared to Donald Trump’s populist approach.
Harris may struggle to gain support from evangelical Christians due to her pro-choice views. In places like McHenry County, Illinois, some residents are sceptical of her leadership and anticipate a Trump victory. There are also concerns about potential unrest if the election outcome is disputed, with fears of escalation if Trump loses.
Trump’s presidency could lead to decreased stability in regions like the Taiwan Strait due to his isolationist and transactional foreign policy. However, economically, he plans to extend the 2017 tax cuts for individuals and corporations, roll back business regulations, and impose new tariffs on imports to protect domestic industries.
Polls indicate a close race between Harris and Trump.
Increased security measures are anticipated to continue due to the election and recent events, including the assassination attempt on Trump during a campaign rally. Subsequent road closures and traffic congestion are likely. There may also be an increase in protests and demonstrations as the presidential candidates visit public places.
Organizations should stay informed and prepare contingency plans.
