Intelligence Alert

Updates on tensions in the Middle East as of Saturday (26 September)

Risk level: High Country: Yemen

As per latest reports, the updates on tensions in the Middle East as of Saturday (26 September) are as follows:

• Iran: On Friday (25 September), Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated Tehran has presented Washington, through mediators, a proposal based on the June 2026 US-Iran MoU. It calls for an end to hostilities, lifting of the US naval blockade and sanctions on Iranian oil, release of at least USD 12 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on the seventh day by Thursday (01 October).
• He further stated that the ‘choice rests with the US’ regarding the seven-day proposal. Tehran is seeking implementation of the previous MoU framework, while Washington has reportedly described mediator discussions as ‘positive and constructive’ but has not committed to accepting the Iranian roadmap.
• Pakistan, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia: On Friday (25 September), the three countries announced plans for an urgent meeting of their military chiefs under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, following escalating Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia. The agreement treats an attack on one member as an attack on all three, although the precise military assistance to be discussed has not been specified.
• France, Saudi Arabia: On Friday (25 September), French President Emmanuel Macron stated France would deploy soldiers, radar systems and defence equipment to protect the major oil terminal at Yanbu on the Red Sea. He further indicated that the deployment is intended to protect the facility rather than involve France directly in the wider conflict.
• Yemen, Saudi Arabia: As of Friday (25 September), the Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks against a ‘sensitive target’ in Riyadh and facilities belonging to Saudi Aramco in Yanbu. Saudi authorities said their air defences intercepted six ballistic missiles. The attacks are increasing concerns over Saudi oil-export infrastructure and the security of alternative routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
• Brent crude as of Friday (25 September) remained above USD 105 per barrel after rising more than three percent following the Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities. The attacks have heightened concerns about disruptions to Saudi exports and broader energy flows amid the simultaneous restrictions affecting the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb.

Categories: External Threats - Bi-lateral Relationships

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