Intelligence Alert

Situational update on Tropical Storm Simon forecast for Pacific Coast of Mexico as of Thursday (08 October)

Risk level: Medium Country: Mexico

As per reports, as of 1200 hours local time (1800 hours UTC) on Thursday (08 October), Tropical Storm Simon was located approximately 255 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo and 380 miles south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour and movement toward the west at five miles per hour.

• According to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Thursday (08 October), Simon is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by early Friday (09 October) and is anticipated to become a major hurricane, potentially reaching Category Four intensity, by Saturday (10 October) before making landfall along the southwestern or west-central coast of Mexico.
• A hurricane watch is reportedly in effect from Manzanillo to Punta Mita, while a tropical storm watch is in effect from east of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo. Coastal areas across Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Michoacán are expected to remain exposed to deteriorating weather conditions as the system approaches.
• Additionally reports indicate that Simon is expected to produce heavy rainfall across Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and Michoacán from Friday (09 October) through the weekend. Rainfall totals of eight to 15 inches are expected across parts of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximums of 15 inches to 25 inches are forecast in parts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco through Sunday (11 October).
• Reports indicate the rainfall is expected to create a significant risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in areas with steep or mountainous terrain. Coastal areas near the anticipated landfall zone are also expected to experience dangerous storm surge and strong waves.
• Additionally, the US Mission in Mexico has advised US citizens to monitor local media and official weather updates, comply with instructions from Mexican authorities, prepare to seek shelter, and maintain evacuation plans that do not rely on US government assistance.

Categories: Natural Disasters - Hurricane

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