MitKat Advisory’s Special Report on the US and Venezuela escalations, unpacks how a decades-long deterioration in relations reached its highest state of tension since the early 2000s. It is intended to help organizations with regional exposure understand both the roots of the standoff and where it could go from here.
What the Special Report covers
The report opens with an overview of the escalation, then traces the political background since 1999, including the emergence of the Cartel of the Suns and the fragmentation of Venezuela’s Latin American relations into hostile, pragmatic and non-interventionist blocs. It details recent US military and diplomatic escalations, explains why Venezuela matters strategically, sets out three expected scenarios, and closes with an impact assessment and recommendations.
From oil democracy to a security threat
Since Hugo Chávez’s 1999 election, Venezuela’s political system consolidated around the executive branch, and the 2005 expulsion of the US DEA is reported to have enabled the rise of the Cartel of the Suns within state institutions. Venezuela’s share of global cocaine distribution is estimated to have grown from roughly one percent in 2010 to around 25 percent by 2022, with senior officials, including Maduro, indicted by the US Department of Justice on narco-terrorism charges in 2020.
Operation Southern Spear and the Caribbean build-up
Since September 2025, the US has deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford, other warships and thousands of troops to the Caribbean under Operation Southern Spear, striking vessels it alleges are trafficking narcotics. Reported strikes had killed more than 80 people by mid-November, while Venezuela responded with nationwide military drills and a provocative F-16 overflight of a US Navy warship.
Airspace closure and diplomatic fallout
President Trump’s 29 November declaration that Venezuelan airspace should be considered ‘closed in its entirety’ followed an FAA advisory on 21 November and prompted Venezuela to revoke operating permits for several airlines, while Spain and Portugal urged operators to avoid the Maiquetía Flight Information Region. Latin American reactions remain split between hostile critics such as Argentina and Chile, pragmatic neighbours Colombia and Brazil, and non-interventionist Mexico.
Why Venezuela matters strategically
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves at an estimated 303 billion barrels, and its heavy-sour crude is a key input for diesel production. China has extended over USD 60 billion in loan-for-oil financing since 2007 and now purchases more than 85 percent of Venezuelan crude exports, giving Beijing a direct stake in how the standoff unfolds, alongside broader US concerns over migration and the regime’s ties to Cuba, Russia and Iran.
Three scenarios and the resulting business risk
MitKat rates continued high-tension deterrence as the most likely path, with de-escalation and an accidental kinetic conflict as alternative scenarios. The report’s impact assessment rates security and military risk as high, aviation and logistics disruption and business continuity and supply-chain risk as medium, and humanitarian and oil-market risk as currently low but capable of shifting quickly if the standoff escalates further.
What businesses should do
MitKat recommends halting all non-essential travel to Venezuela and reassessing travel through Caribbean transit hubs, ensuring evacuation plans and safe housing options for staff in affected regions, and enabling centralized, real-time incident reporting with 24/7 tracking for field personnel. Given the naval build-up and airspace restrictions, firms should pre-book cargo capacity for the next 30 to 60 days, hold 20 to 40 percent buffer stock for critical inputs, reroute via Panama, Colombia, Curaçao or Mexico, and implement enhanced due diligence on third parties to screen for links to the Cartel de los Soles or other designated terrorist organizations.
Download the full report now
The Special Report provides with a detailed background on Venezuela’s political transformation, a full impact-assessment table, and complete scenario planning. Download the full report now to brief your risk and compliance teams
Filed under: AmericasThreat Intelligence Advisories