Locations Affected: Canada
The Liberal Party has won the Canadian election held on 28 April, securing a fourth consecutive mandate. Liberal leader Mark Carney, who replaced former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau following his resignation, is set to remain prime minister. The Liberals won 169 seats, falling just short of the 172 seats required for a parliamentary majority. The main opposition, the Conservative Party, won 144 seats, with its leader Pierre Poilievre losing his seat in Carleton, Ontario.
Contributing Factors to Liberal Party’s Win
Opinion polls at the beginning of the year showed the Conservatives leading the Liberals. However, the Liberals gained ground following Trudeau’s sudden resignation—prompted by declining popularity since the COVID-19 pandemic—and Carney’s appointment as the new prime minister. Additionally, United States President Donald Trump’s announcement of increased tariffs on Canada and his remarks questioning Canada’s sovereignty helped shift public support back to the Liberals, ultimately contributing to their victory.
Election Results
- Both the Liberals and Conservatives saw a significant increase in support compared to the 2021 election. However, smaller parties experienced a decline, particularly the New Democratic Party (NDP), whose leader Jagmeet Singh resigned after losing his seat.
- The Liberals secured most of their seats in the key provinces of Ontario and Quebec, which together account for 200 of Canada’s 343 total electoral seats.
- As the Liberals failed to win a majority, they will lead a minority government for the third consecutive term. The party will need to negotiate with smaller parties to pass legislation and withstand no-confidence motions.
- Carney is expected to reshuffle his cabinet before Parliament convenes on 26 May.
Outlook on the Situation
The election results reflect the impact of rising tensions with the United States and ongoing economic challenges in Canada. The Liberal Party’s victory suggests that voters view Carney as a strong counterweight to Donald Trump and trust his financial expertise to address economic concerns. Carney has stated that Canada’s traditional relationship with the US is over and emphasized a pivot toward closer ties with the United Kingdom and Europe. A call with Trump is expected in the coming days to discuss future economic and security relations. In the near term, Carney is likely to prioritize reducing trade barriers, advancing major investment projects, and promoting clean energy development.
