Locations Affected: Thailand
What:
On 16 August, Thailand’s parliament selected Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, as the country’s new Prime Minister. Despite finishing second in the election, her Pheu Thai party formed an 11-party ruling coalition with parties affiliated with the military government after the vote-winner was blocked by military-backed lawmakers. Paetongtarn is the fourth member of the Shinawatra family to become Prime Minister in the past two decades, highlighting her family’s central role in Thai politics. Her father, Thaksin, aunt Yingluck, and uncle-in-law Somchai Wongsawat were all removed from their posts by military coups or constitutional rulings.
Why:
Paetongtarn’s selection as Prime Minister follows the dismissal of former PM Srettha Thavisin by the constitutional court on 14 August. Srettha was removed for appointing a retired lawyer to his cabinet who had previously served prison time for an alleged bribery attempt. This marked the fourth time a premier from a Thaksin-backed political party was ousted by a court ruling, reflecting the deep divide between the populist Pheu Thai and the conservative-royalist establishment.
Additionally, on 07 August, the constitutional court voted to dissolve the Move Forward Party (MFP) and ban its executive members from politics for ten years due to the party’s promise to amend strict royal defamation laws. The MFP has since regrouped as the People’s Party. Despite winning the most seats in the 2023 general election, the MFP’s attempt to form a government was blocked by a coalition led by the Pheu Thai party, which had elected Srettha Thavisin as prime minister before his dismissal.
So What:
- PM Paetongtarn received 319 endorsements out of 493 members of the parliament. She was chosen by the ruling coalition during a meeting on 15 August after no alternative candidates were proposed by the other ten coalition parties.
- She played a prominent role in the election campaign for Pheu Thai during the 2023 election. However, she has not held any elected office until now, which is likely to put her under increased scrutiny.
- According to some analysts, PM Paetongtarn could strengthen the unity between the parties of the ruling coalition due to her father’s influence on the Pheu Thai party.
Outlook:
PM Paetongtarn’s selection amid Thailand’s political turmoil highlights the ongoing conflict between the military-backed conservative-royalist establishment and populist parties like Pheu Thai. Her government faces significant challenges, including a struggling economy with rising living costs and high household debt, as well as competition from the newly formed People’s Party. These factors, combined with Pheu Thai’s waning popularity, suggest that Paetongtarn’s tenure may be marked by continued political and economic instability. Organizations are advised to remain abreast of the situation and prepare necessary contingency plans.
